This paper evaluates accuracy and rationality of real GDP forecasts made by 38 Japanese private institutions over the past 22 years. It finds that about 80% of current-year forecasts and year-ahead forecasts made by them pass various tests for rationality. Moreover, the encompassing test reveals the following results: (a) All of these forecasts outperform the naïve forecasts; (b) About half of their current-year forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecast of VAR, VECM, or the Japanese government; (c) Almost all of their year-ahead forecasts are significantly superior to the corresponding forecast of VAR or the Japanese government, but one-third of them are significantly inferior to VECM forecast; (d) The consensus forecast outperforms typical institution's forecast.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Related research
Keywords:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: