IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v7y2000i1p7-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Common trends and cycles in G-7 countries exchange rates and stock prices

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce Morley
  • Eric Pentecost

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the nature of the relationship between stock prices and spot exchange rates using recent developments in time series modelling. We are able to explain why traditional econometric techniques show little correlation between bilateral exchange rates and stock prices. The reason is that stock prices and exchange rates do not exhibit common trends, but do exhibit common cycles. Common cycle tests are used in this paper to show this result for the G-7 countries exchange rates and relative stock market prices indices using monthly data over the period from 1982 to 1994.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Morley & Eric Pentecost, 2000. "Common trends and cycles in G-7 countries exchange rates and stock prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 7-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:7:y:2000:i:1:p:7-10
    DOI: 10.1080/135048500352004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/135048500352004&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/135048500352004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    2. Morley, Bruce & Pentecost, Eric J., 1998. "Asset pricing and foreign exchange risk: econometric evidence for the G-7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 317-329, April.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    5. Chiang, Thomas C., 1991. "International asset pricing and equity market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 349-364, September.
    6. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March.
    7. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
    8. Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Yang, Sheng-Ping, 2017. "Exchange rate dynamics and stock prices in small open economies: Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB), pages 337-354.
    3. repec:eut:journl:v:11:y:2006:i:3:p:137 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Patrick Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2003. "Trends and Spectral Response: An Examination of the US Realty Market," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-15, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    5. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:n:2:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    7. Alan Tse-Shih Wang & Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Ti-Chen Chen, 2010. "Price transmission, foreign exchange rate risks and global diversification of ADRs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(14), pages 1811-1823.
    8. Vatsa, Puneet & Basnet, Hem C., 2020. "The dynamics of energy prices and the Norwegian economy: A common trends and common cycles analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2022. "Dynamic relationship between exchange rates and stock prices for the G7 countries: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Priyanka Aggarwal & Najia Saqib, 2017. "Impact of Macro Economic Variables of India and USA on Indian Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 10-14.
    11. Tomáš Plíhal, 2016. "Granger Causality between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Germany," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 2101-2108.
    12. Hashem Valipour & Mostafa Sohouli Vahed, 2017. "Risk Management and Forecasting Macro-Variables Influences on Bank Risk," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(6), pages 137-137, May.
    13. Alok Kumar Mishra, 2004. "Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market in India: Are they Related?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 5(2), pages 209-232, September.
    14. Ülkü, Numan & Demirci, Ebru, 2012. "Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-86.
    15. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Ülkü, Numan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Kuzmicheva, Olga, 2017. "Stock market's response to real output shocks in Eastern European frontier markets: A VARwAL model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 140-154.
    17. Ceylan Onay & Gözde Ünal, 2012. "Cointegration and Extreme Value Analyses of Bovespa and the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(1), pages 66-90, February.
    18. Matos, Paulo Rogério Faustino & Bueno, Amadeus & Trompieri, Nicolino, 2014. "Análise de Integração Financeira na América do Sul," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    19. Paulo Ferreira & Marcus Fernandes da Silva & Idaraí Santos de Santana, 2019. "Detrended Correlation Coefficients Between Exchange Rate (in Dollars) and Stock Markets in the World’s Largest Economies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Cointegration, structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 397-412, November.
    3. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    4. Yijian He & Subhash Sharma, 1997. "Currency substitution and exchange rate determination," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 327-336.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0134 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Stavarek, Daniel, 2004. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions," MPRA Paper 7297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Odedokun, M. O., 1997. "The monetary approach to analysing floating exchange rate behaviour in developing countries: Evidence from sub-Saharan African countries, 1986-1992," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 463-481, April.
    8. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Daniel Stavarek, 2004. "Linkages between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the United States," Finance 0406006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    11. Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Foreign exchange: macro puzzles, micro tools," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 51-69.
    12. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    13. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    14. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Helliwell, John F, 1983. "A Synthesis of Keynesian, Monetary, and Portfolio Approaches to Flexible Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 820-831, December.
    15. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    16. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Ernst-August Behnke, 1980. "Stationäres und intertemporäres Gleichgewicht auf den Devisenmärkten bei festen und flexiblen Wechselkursen," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 116(II), pages 171-194, June.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 1996. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with jumps," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 111, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    19. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Piotr Wdowiński, 2011. "Model monetarny kursu równowagi złoty/euro: analiza kointegracyjna," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 67-86.
    21. Wang, Jian-Xin & Wong, Hoi-In, 1997. "The predictability of Asian exchange rates: evidence from Kalman filter and ARCH estimations," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-252, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:7:y:2000:i:1:p:7-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.