IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v2y1995i8p248-254.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expectations-augmented Phillips curve: further evidence from state economies

Author

Listed:
  • James Payne

Abstract

This paper tests the expectations-augmented Phillips-curve hypothesis for the 50 states in the US. Unlike previous work both adaptive and rational expectations are incorporated in the modeling of the Phillips-curve relationship. Second, the role of relative regional wages are taken into account. Third, the wage-price controls of 1971-72 and 1972-73 are included in the modeling efforts. The empirical results suggest that the expectations-augmented Phillips-curve model based on adaptive expectations provides better results across the 50 states than the Phillips-curve model based on rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • James Payne, 1995. "Expectations-augmented Phillips curve: further evidence from state economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 248-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:2:y:1995:i:8:p:248-254
    DOI: 10.1080/135048595357168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/135048595357168&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/135048595357168?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brechling, Frank, 1973. "Wage Inflation and the Structure of Regional Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 355-379, Part II F.
    2. Thomas Hyclak & Geraint Johnes, 1992. "Wage Flexibility and Unemployment Dynamics in Regional Labor Markets," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wfud, November.
    3. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    4. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
    5. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 1985. "Understanding Inflation in the 1980s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 263-302.
    7. Kaun, David E & Spiro, Michael H, 1970. "The Relation Between Wages And Unemployment In U.S. Cities, 1955-1965," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 38(1), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 111-143, June.
    9. Metcalf, David, 1971. "The Determinants of Earnings Changes: A Regional Analysis for the U. K., 1960-68," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(2), pages 273-282, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    2. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    3. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Who Puts the Inflation Premium Into Nominal Interests Rates?," NBER Working Papers 0231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Edward B. Montgomery, 1993. "Pattern in Regional Labor Market Adjustment: The United States vs. Japan," NBER Working Papers 4414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Role in Monetary Policy for The European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 5279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Per Pettersson-Lidbom, 2010. "Dynamic Commitment and the Soft Budget Constraint: An Empirical Test," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 154-179, August.
    7. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2010. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve of Rational Expectations: A Serial Correlation Extension," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 159-179, May.
    8. David Elkayam & Meir Sokoler, 1999. "A null Hypothesis of the Unrmployment Rate vis-?-vis the Inflation Rate in Israel; An Empirical Examination, 1990-98," Bank of Israel Working Papers 1999.02, Bank of Israel.
    9. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Price Inflation, Portfolio Choice, and Nominal Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 0235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Hwang, Mann-Fen Susan, 1983. "Testing the natural rate hypothesis under the assumption of rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1983010108000017450, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
    13. McKenzie, C. R., 1992. "Money demand in an open economy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 176-198, June.
    14. Devadoss, Stephen, 1994. "Sluggish Price Adjustments And The Effectiveness Of Aggregate Demand Policies At The Sectoral Level," A.E. Research Series 305122, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    15. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1986. "Consistent estimation of rational expectation models," Other publications TiSEM e9900aa6-bae2-4b35-89cb-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Gilbert, Christopher L., 1990. "The rational expectations hypothesis in models of primary commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 384, The World Bank.
    17. Moore, Kevin Clare, 1985. "Predictive econometric modeling of the United States farmland market: an empirical test of the rational expectations hypothesis," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800008872, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1986. "Consistent estimation of rational expectation models," Research Memorandum FEW 216, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Pantuosco, Louis J. & Parker, Darrell & Seyfried, William & Lyman, Scott, 2002. "Macroeconomic Differences in Public and Private Union Density: An Analysis of U.S. State Economies," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 32(2), pages 171-186, Summer/Fa.
    20. Edward B. Montgomery, 1994. "Patterns in Regional Labor Market Adjustment: The United States versus Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Social Protection versus Economic Flexibility: Is There a Trade-Off?, pages 95-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:2:y:1995:i:8:p:248-254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.