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The dynamics of Italian public debt: alternative paths for fiscal consolidation

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  • Paolo Casadio
  • Antonio Paradiso
  • B. Bhaskara Rao
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    Abstract

    This article analyses possible targets for the Italian debt-to-GDP ratio with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables such as the US GDP growth, prices of raw materials, EUR/USD exchange rate and European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy stance and domestic policy instruments is analysed in the debt dynamics. We find that external conditions play a fundamental role for the Italian fiscal consolidation. To reach a target of 100% of debt-to-GDP ratio by 2020, a further growth-sustaining policy has to be implemented.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13504851.2011.591726
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 7 (May)
    Pages: 635-639

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:7:p:635-639

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    Cited by:
    1. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2013. "Forecasting fiscal variables: Only a strong growth plan can sustain the Greek austerity programs-Evidence from simultaneous and structural models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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