Are central bank projections rational?
AbstractCentral bank projections have gained considerable attention for monetary policy modelling. However, less is known about the nature of central bank projections. This letter explores the unbiasedness and rationality of more than 2000 growth and inflation projections published by 15 major central banks. The results indicate that central bank projections are rational and unbiased in most cases. Interestingly, inflation projections are more biased than growth projections.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
Issue (Month): 13 (September)
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Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20
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