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Can households form consistent/convergent and unbiased expectation of interest rate?

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  • Zhong Chunping
  • Calum Turvey

Abstract

Expectation reliability remains a question. In this article, we test whether the households could form unbiased expectation of interest rate. From the Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF), we find that the majority of households hold higher interest rate expectation, and by simple t-test, the interest rate movement in 5 years does not support such expectation. Additional evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations (SEE) confirms that it is hard to accept that the households could form unbiased expectation of interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhong Chunping & Calum Turvey, 2011. "Can households form consistent/convergent and unbiased expectation of interest rate?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(16), pages 1553-1557.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:18:y:2011:i:16:p:1553-1557
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2010.548778
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