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Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between stock prices and dividends

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  • Vicente Esteve
  • Maria Prats

Abstract

According to several empirical studies, the linear present-value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long run. We analyse the possible presence of threshold cointegration between real stock prices and dividends for the US market during the period from 1871:1 to 2004:6. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration between stock prices and dividends is rejected in favour of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. We find also that stock prices do not respond to equilibrium error, and dividends respond to the past divergence only if the deviation from the equilibrium error does not exceed the estimated threshold parameter. This in turn would support theoretical models assuming that the stock price-dividend relation is nonlinear.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 405-410

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:405-410

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Cited by:
  1. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 13-04, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  2. Claude Bergeron, 2013. "Dividend growth, stock valuation, and long-run risk," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 547-559, October.
  3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sbia, Rashid & Hamdi, Helmi, 2013. "The Environmental cost of Skiing in the Desert? Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks in UAE," MPRA Paper 48007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jul 2013.
  4. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2013. "Threshold Cointegration: Model Selection with an Application," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 56(2), pages 54-77.

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