This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Does consumer debt cause economic recession? Evidence using directed acyclic graphs

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Jin Zhang
David A. Bessler
David J. Leatham

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between consumer debt and aggregate economic activity based on time series methods and directed acyclic graphs (DAG). Quarterly US data, measured over the period 1980 to 2003, on consumer debt, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, housing starts, and domestic auto sales, are analysed in an Error Correction Model (ECM). Contemporaneous innovations from this ECM are given a structural representation, using recent developments in DAG modelling. The ECM and DAG components are summarized using innovation accounting techniques (impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition). The DAG causal pattern reveals a causal flow from GDP to consumer debt; the subsequent innovation accounting results also show that consumer debt is not exogenous in contrast to GDP and other indicators. This result concurs with a previous study based on Granger causality, but contradicts other works that claim consumer debt is a root cause of aggregate economic performance.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=K72747R371646524
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 7 (June)
Pages: 401-407
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:7:p:401-407

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/routledge/13504851.html

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/subscription.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Norman R. Swanson & C. W.J. Granger, 1992. "Impulse Response Functions Based on a Causal Approach to Residual Orthogonalizaton in Vector Autoregressions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-50, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  2. C. Alan Garner, 1996. "Can measures of the consumer debt burden reliably predict an economic slowdown?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 63-76. [Downloadable!]
  3. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. K.J. Kowalewski, 1986. "Is the consumer overextended?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Nov 15.
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About five million pdf files are downloaded through RePEc every year.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-5.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.