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A new approach to examining the sustainability of external imbalances: the case of Japan

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Author Info
Tuck Cheong Tang

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Abstract

This study aims to solve the puzzle of the conventional practice of examining the sustainability of external accounts by initially looking for cointegration between imports and exports. This study proposes a new approach to examine this thesis using unit root tests (with unknown break date) on trade balance series rather than testing the cointegration relationships between imports and exports. In contrast to previous findings, this study has shown empirically that Japan's trade balances are unsustainable. This finding has important policy implications for Japan's external accounts.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 (April)
Pages: 287-292
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:5:p:287-292

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  1. M. Lanne & H. Lütkepohl & P. Saikkonen, . "Comparison of Unit Root Tests for Time Series with Level Shifts," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-88, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hyun-Jae Rhee, 1997. "Are Imports And Exports Of Korea Cointegrated?," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 109-114, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
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  4. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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