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An empirical examination of exchange-rate credibility determinants in the EMS

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Author Info
Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez
Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

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Abstract

This study provides empirical evidence on the determinants of exchange rate credibility under the European Monetary System (EMS). To that end, it considers both economic variables and political factors using data of eight currencies participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, covering the complete EMS history (1979 to 1998). The results suggest that the level of international reserves, the real interest rate and right-wing governments would have positively affected the credibility of a given central parity, while the unemployment rate and the inflation rate would have negatively influenced such credibility.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 13 (October)
Pages: 847-850
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:13:p:847-850

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
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  2. Allan Drazen, 1999. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernado Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," Working Papers 97-24, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2003. "On the Credibility of a Target Zone: Evidence from the EMS," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/33, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Alogoskoufis, George & Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 1992. "Wage Inflation, Electoral Uncertainty and the Exchange Rate Regime: Theory and UK Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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