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Is the forward premium puzzle universal?

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  • Bing Han
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    Abstract

    The forward premium puzzle, or violation of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), has been documented by many. Studies, using methodologies more sophisticated than regression analysis, tend to suggest that the rejection of UIP may be false, due to cointegration, biased parameter estimates, time-varying risk premium, etc. In this study, from data for the two decades (1979-1998) and nine major currencies of the developed world, it is shown that the forward premium puzzle is not always present for any arbitrary time period, or for any pair of countries, even using the regression analysis that established the puzzle in earlier works.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 131-134

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:131-134

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    1. Razzaque Bhatti & Imad Moosa, 1995. "An alternative approach to testing uncovered interest parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(12), pages 478-481.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
    3. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1989. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and cointegration : Some evidence from the recent float," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 63-68.
    4. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    5. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-38, April.
    6. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-26, December.
    7. Cumby, Robert E & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "A Note on Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test of the Fisher Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 697-703, June.
    8. Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "Covered Interest Parity: A High-Frequency, High-Quality Data Study," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 54(216), pages 429-38, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Nath, Golaka, 2013. "The Spot Forward Exchange Rate Relation in Indian Foreign Exchange Market - An Analysis," MPRA Paper 51591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jonen, Benjamin & Scheuring, Simon, 2014. "Time-varying international diversification and the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 128-148.
    3. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 568-573, January.
    4. Ozgur Aslan & H. Levent Korap, 2010. "Does the uncovered interest parity hold in short horizons?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-365.
    5. Pippenger, John, 2013. "The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Bias And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt50n5p8bv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    6. Pippenger, John, 2012. "What Covered Interest Parity Implies about the Theory of Uncovered Interest Parity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt0zk6t2hj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    7. Pippenger, John, 2011. "A Complete Solution To The Forward-Bias Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5gq9z4j0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.

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