The Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis, Determinants Of Default Probabilities And Implied Ratings In The Cds Market: An Econometric Analysis
AbstractIn this paper, we investigate what has been leading investors to ask for higher yields on sovereign debt from certain Euro countries. We dismiss Granger Causality as a basis to define speculation. Instead, we assume that speculative behavior would only exist if market assessments were unrelated to economic fundamentals. Using a cross section of countries, we improve on the literature on Credit Default Swap Markets on sovereign debt. Firstly, we use an ordered probit to determine whether fundamentals are driving ratings. Then, quantile regression determines which variables matter at different conditional quantiles of the default probability. Finally, Fisher's Z statistic is used to relate bond yields to domestic savings. The different methods support the conclusion that the domestic savings rate is lenders' main concern. Economies with worse saving habits are penalized both in the CDS and in the bonds market. Notwithstanding, for countries on the top quantiles of the default probabilities, public and external debt also increase the insurance premium in the derivatives market. Looking at the Portuguese case, it is clear that policies that don't take savings into account shall fail, as the country had the lowest net savings rate in the EU27 in 2008, followed closely by Greece.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by ASERS Publishing in its journal Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance.
Volume (Year): II (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
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Web page: http://www.asers.eu/journals/jasf.html
sovereign debt; euro area; credit default swaps; quantile regression; ordered probit; savings rate;
Other versions of this item:
- Santos, Carlos, 2011. "The euro sovereign debt crisis, determinants of default probabilities and implied ratings in the CDS market: an econometric analysis," MPRA Paper 31341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlos Santos, 2011. "The Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis, Determinants of Default Probabilities and Implied Ratings in the CDS Market: An Econometric Analysis," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 02, Faculdade de Economia e Gestão, Universidade Católica Portuguesa (Porto).
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
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