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Bevölkerungsstimmung als Indikator für das Wirtschaftswachstum

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  • Oliver Bruttel

Abstract

Established economic forecasts are generally based on complex econometric models which include a wide array of input variables. The Allensbach Institute, one of Germany's leading opinion poll institutes, poses a question at the end of each year asking Germans about their expectations for the coming year. Remarkably, the findings obtained in response to this so-called “New Year’s question” or the forecasts derived from the results bear a strong resemblance to the actual economic trends in Germany — and in part correlate even more closely with the actual economic growth rate than the forecasts published by the German Council of Economic Experts and the Joint Economic Forecasts issued by the leading German economic research institutes. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Bruttel, 2013. "Bevölkerungsstimmung als Indikator für das Wirtschaftswachstum," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(6), pages 390-395, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:93:y:2013:i:6:p:390-395
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-013-1539-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudia M. Buch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2014. "Do we need new modelling approaches in macroeconomics?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 3, pages 36-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    E37; C53;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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