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Günstige Aufkommensperspektiven — Steuererhöhungen nicht erforderlich

Author

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  • Heinz Gebhardt
  • Rainer Kambeck

Abstract

In May 2013, the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting presented its new estimate, which is based on the federal government’s spring projection of the medium-term development of the overall economy. Tax revenues are estimated to expand from yy600 bn in 2012 to yy704.5 bn in 2017. Because the tax revenues increase at a faster pace than the nominal GDP, the tax-to-GDP ratio increases from 22.7% to 23.1%. Contrary to the diagnosis of the opposition parties in the German Bundestag, we see no structural revenue gap. In fact, public budgets will realise structural surpluses in the coming years if governments are successful in constraining expenditure growth. There are no convincing reasons to increase public revenues by increasing tax rates or launching new fees; in both cases tax burdens would increase and that would dampen economic growth. Instead, there will be budgetary leeway to reduce the fiscal drag if governments are committed to a sound consolidation policy. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Heinz Gebhardt & Rainer Kambeck, 2013. "Günstige Aufkommensperspektiven — Steuererhöhungen nicht erforderlich," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(6), pages 377-383, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:93:y:2013:i:6:p:377-383
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-013-1537-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gisela Färber & André W. Heinemann & Tanja Kasten & Reiner Holznagel & Jens Lemmer, 2013. "Prolongation of Solidarity Surcharge: False Signal in Tax Policy?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 03-16, October.
    2. Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Essen) (ed.), 2014. "Gesetz zur Vorlage einer verbindlichen Finanzplanung bis 2020. Stellungnahme zur Anhörung im Landtag Nordrhein-Westfalen am 22. Mai 2014," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 111438.
    3. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Binnennachfrage trägt Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(3), pages 41-103.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    H20; H62; H71;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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