IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/weltar/v143y2007i3p391-415.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamics of International Trade Patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Paulo Bastos
  • Manuel Cabral

Abstract

This paper introduces new dynamic measures for examining changes in international trade patterns. Using data for 20 OECD countries over the 1980-2000 period, we show that inter-industry trade changes contrary to countries' previous specialisation are frequently the dominant form of trade expansion. The econometric analysis indicates that the observed changes in trade patterns were explained by initial endowments of human-capital and industry-specific changes in labour productivity and labour costs. The results also suggest that trade liberalisation induced an increase in the previous specialisation of larger OECD economies in industries with increasing returns to scale.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Bastos & Manuel Cabral, 2007. "The Dynamics of International Trade Patterns," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(3), pages 391-415, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:143:y:2007:i:3:p:391-415
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-007-0114-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10290-007-0114-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10290-007-0114-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    2. Harrigan, James, 1997. "Technology, Factor Supplies, and International Specialization: Estimating the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 475-494, September.
    3. Richard Kneller & Mauro Pisu, 2004. "Export-oriented FDI in the UK," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(3), pages 424-439, Autumn.
    4. Davis, Donald R. & Weinstein, David E., 1999. "Economic geography and regional production structure: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 379-407, February.
    5. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
    6. Clive Hamilton & Paul Kniest, 1991. "Trade liberalisation, structural adjustment and intra-industry trade: A note," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(2), pages 356-367, June.
    7. Proudman, James & Redding, Stephen, 2000. "Evolving Patterns of International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 373-396, August.
    8. Mary Amiti, 1999. "Specialization patterns in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(4), pages 573-593, December.
    9. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    10. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
    11. Venables, Anthony J, 1996. "Equilibrium Locations of Vertically Linked Industries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 341-359, May.
    12. Brander, James A., 1981. "Intra-industry trade in identical commodities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, February.
    13. Sukkoo Kim, 1995. "Expansion of Markets and the Geographic Distribution of Economic Activities: The Trends in U. S. Regional Manufacturing Structure, 1860–1987," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 881-908.
    14. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    15. Marius Brülhart & Robert Elliott, 2002. "Labour-market effects of intra-industry trade: Evidence for the United Kingdom," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(2), pages 207-228, June.
    16. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    17. Davis, Donald R. & Weinstein, David E., 2003. "Market access, economic geography and comparative advantage: an empirical test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January.
    18. Redding, Stephen, 1999. "Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 15-39, January.
    19. Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade patterns," LIUC Papers in Economics 61, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    20. Forslid, Rikard & Haaland, Jan I. & Midelfart Knarvik, Karen Helene, 2002. "A U-shaped Europe?: A simulation study of industrial location," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 273-297, August.
    21. James Proudman & Stephen Redding, 2000. "Evolving Patterns of International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 373-396, August.
    22. Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
    23. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176.
    24. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
    25. Manuel Cabral & Joana Silva, 2006. "Intra-Industry Trade Expansion and Employment Reallocation between Sectors and Occupations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(3), pages 496-520, October.
    26. Marius Brülhart & Robert C. Hine (ed.), 1999. "Intra-Industry Trade and Adjustment," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-27173-3.
    27. Patrik Tingvall, 2004. "The dynamics of European industrial structure," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 665-687, December.
    28. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Marius Brülhart, 1994. "Marginal Intra-Industry Trade: Measurement and Relevance," Economics Technical Papers 942, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    30. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    31. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
    32. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    33. Brulhart, Marius, 2000. "Dynamics of Intraindustry Trade and Labor-Market Adjustment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 420-435, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Becuwe, Stéphane & Blancheton, Bertrand & Meissner, Christopher M., 2021. "The French (Trade) Revolution of 1860: Intra-Industry Trade and Smooth Adjustment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 688-722, September.
    2. repec:got:cegedp:106 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Krenz, Astrid & Rübel, Gerhard, 2010. "Industrial localization and countries' specialization in the European Union: An empirical investigation," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 106, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Oana Ancuta Stangaciu, 2013. "The Regional Assessment Of Marginal Intra-Industry Specialization," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 18.
    5. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Luís Brites Pereira, 2014. "Cape Verde and Mozambique as Development Successes in West and Southern Africa," NBER Chapters, in: African Successes, Volume IV: Sustainable Growth, pages 203-293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Tang, Donny, 2016. "Has the Financial Integration affected the European Union (EU) trade with the New Member Countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) during 1994–2013?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 8-20.
    7. Oana Ancuta STANGACIU & Eugenia HARJA, 2013. "Testing The Models Of Regional Specialization In Terms Of New Theories Of International Trade," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 61(2), pages 16-28, March.
    8. Phan, Thanh Hoan & Jeong, Ji Young, 2012. "An Analysis of Korea-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Relation," MPRA Paper 48312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Astrid KRENZ & Gerhard RÜBEL, 2009. "Explaining Industrial Localization and Countries´ Specialization in the European Union: An Empirical Investigation," EcoMod2009 21500056, EcoMod.
    10. Manuel Cabral & Joana Silva, 2006. "Intra-Industry Trade Expansion and Employment Reallocation between Sectors and Occupations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(3), pages 496-520, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabien Candau, 2008. "Entrepreneurs' Location Choice And Public Policies: A Survey Of The New Economic Geography," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 909-952, December.
    2. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
    3. Ufuk Gunes Bebek, 2011. "Stability, Specialisation and Divergence in Export Patterns for EU15," Studies in Economics 1122, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    4. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2004. "The empirics of agglomeration and trade," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 59, pages 2609-2669, Elsevier.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10191 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Luca De Benedictis & Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2006. "Overall Specialization and Income: Countries Diversity," Working Papers 37-2006, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2008.
    7. Raphaël Chiappini, 2014. "Persistence vs. mobility in industrial and technological specialisations: evidence from 11 Euro area countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 159-187, January.
    8. Irina Marilena Ban, 2017. "Measuring trade specialization dynamics: the case of Romania and Bulgaria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 229-248, May.
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10191 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10191 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Beňo, Michal, 2021. "E-working: Country Versus Culture Dimension," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    12. J.Peter Neary, 2001. "Of Hype and Hyperbolas: Introducing the New Economic Geography," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 536-561, June.
    13. Helena Marques, 2008. "Trade And Factor Flows In A Diverse Eu: What Lessons For The Eastern Enlargement(S)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 364-408, April.
    14. J. Peter Neary, 2009. "Putting the “New” into New Trade Theory: Paul Krugman's Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(2), pages 217-250, June.
    15. Kim, Ho Yeon, 2012. "Shrinking population and the urban hierarchy," IDE Discussion Papers 360, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade patterns," LIUC Papers in Economics 61, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    17. Lee, Jim, 2011. "Export specialization and economic growth around the world," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-63, March.
    18. Stephen Redding & Mercedes Vera-Martin, 2006. "Factor Endowments and Production in European Regions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 1-32, April.
    19. Fertő, Imre & Hubbard, Lionel J., 2005. "Az agrárkereskedelem dinamikája - A csatlakozó országok esete [The dynamics of agri-food trade patterns - the accession countries case]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 24-38.
    20. Nendissa, Doppy Roy & Anindita, Ratya & Khoiriyah, Nikmatul & Sa’diyah, Ana Arifatus, 2021. "Consumption and Beef Price Changes on Demand in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    21. Abdul K. M. Azhar & Robert J. R. Elliott, 2008. "On the Measurement of Changes in Product Quality in Marginal Intra-Industry Trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 225-247, July.
    22. Cima, Elizabeth Giron & Freire da Rocha-Junior, Weimar & Uribe-Opazo, Miguel Angel & Dalposso, Gustavo Henrique, 2021. "Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP): Analysis of Agriculture of the State of Paraná-Brazil," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    23. Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(4), pages 629-658, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:143:y:2007:i:3:p:391-415. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.