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Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis

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  • Robert Lensink
  • Hong Bo
  • Elmer Sterken

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on economic growth. We construct measures of export uncertainty, government policy uncertainty and price uncertainty to augment a growth model, and using econometric techniques we test for robustness of the effects of these measure on economic growth in a cross-section of 138 developing and developed economies during 1970-1995. The result clearly shows a robust and negative effect of uncertainty on economic growth. These results underline the importance of export stability and policy credibility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.

Volume (Year): 135 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 379-396

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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:135:y:1999:i:3:p:379-396

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Keywords: O40; D81; E62;

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References

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  1. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May.
  2. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1993. "A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ghosal, Vivek, 1995. "Input Choices under Price Uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 142-58, January.
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  11. Ben S. Bernanke, 1980. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," NBER Working Papers 0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  15. Bo, Hong & Sterken, Elmer, 2002. "Volatility of the interest rate, debt and firm investment: Dutch evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 179-193, March.
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  21. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.
  2. Ivan Stoykov, 2012. "Bulgarian Economy in the Conditions of European Integration (English)," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 21-36.
  3. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Harald Badinger, 2012. "Output Volatility, Economic Growth, and Cross-Country Spillovers: New Evidence for the G7 Countries," FIW Working Paper series 098, FIW.
  4. Aiello, Francesco, 2002. "Financial stabilization systems, economic growth of developing countries and EU’s STABEX," MPRA Paper 38099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Galindev Ragchaasuren, 2005. "The Relationship between Growth and Volatility under Alternative Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 589, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  6. Bisio, Laura & Ventura, Luigi, 2012. "Growth and volatility reconsidered: reconciling opposite views," MPRA Paper 35937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Ivan Stoykov, 2012. "Bulgarian Economy in the Conditions of European Integration (Bulgarian)," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 3-20.
  8. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  9. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 112-123, September.
  11. Jean-Louis Combes & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1416.
  12. Muhammad Azam & Muhammad Khan & Nasir Iqbal, 2012. "Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 59-77, September.
  13. Ftiti, Zied, 2010. "The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 468-476, January.
  14. Lensink, R., 2000. "Is there an uncertainty-laffer curve?," Research Report 00E12, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  15. Bernhard Felderer, 2001. "Warum unterscheiden sich die langfristigen Wachstums- und Produktivitätstrends Europas und der USA?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(01), pages 15-23, 03.
  16. Bo, Hong, 2001. "Volatility of sales, expectation errors, and inventory investment: Firm level evidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 273-283, August.
  17. Maria Abreu & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of Beta-Convergence: The Legendary Two-Percent," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-001/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  18. Marian Rizov, 2002. "Budget Constraints and Profitability: Evidence from a Transition Economy," LICOS Discussion Papers 11602, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
  19. Maria Abreu & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of Beta-Convergence: The Legendary Two-Percent," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-001/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  20. Artelaris, Panagiotis & Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George, 2007. "Explaining Knowledge-Based Economic Dynamism in a Global Scale," Papers DYNREG05, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  21. Rossitsa Rangelova, 2009. "Changing Determinants of the Economic Growth – Theoretical Base and Specifics of the Empirics," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-32.
  22. Artelaris, Panagiotis & Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George, 2006. "Theoretical and Methodological Study on Dynamic Growth Regions and Factors Explaining their Growth Performance," Papers DYNREG02, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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