Estimation, prediction and interpretation of NGG random effects models: an application to Kevlar fibre failure times

We propose a class of Bayesian semiparametric mixed-effects models; its distinctive feature is the randomness of the grouping of observations, which can be inferred from the data. The model can be viewed under a more natural perspective, as a Bayesian semiparametric regression model on the log-scale; hence, in the original scale, the error is a mixture of Weibull densities mixed on both parameters by a normalized generalized gamma random measure, encompassing the Dirichlet process. As an estimate of the posterior distribution of the clustering of the random-effects parameters, we consider the partition minimizing the posterior expectation of a suitable class of loss functions. As a merely illustrative application of our model we consider a Kevlar fibre lifetime dataset (with censoring). We implement an MCMC scheme, obtaining posterior credibility intervals for the predictive distributions and for the quantiles of the failure times under different stress levels. Compared to a previous parametric Bayesian analysis, we obtain narrower credibility intervals and a better fit to the data. We found that there are three main clusters among the random-effects parameters, in accordance with previous frequentist analysis. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014