IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stpapr/v55y2014i2p487-496.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Detecting fuzzy periodic patterns in futures spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Erhard Reschenhofer
  • Werner Ploberger
  • Georg Lehecka

Abstract

This paper extends an optimal frequency domain test for the detection of synchronous patterns in multiple time series to the case of fuzzy patterns, which are not confined to single frequencies or narrow frequency bands. Applying this extension to corn futures with different delivery dates, we obtain significant results only for the spreads between the different contracts but not for the original contracts, which is an indication that spread trading has the advantage of increased predictability. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Erhard Reschenhofer & Werner Ploberger & Georg Lehecka, 2014. "Detecting fuzzy periodic patterns in futures spreads," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 487-496, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:55:y:2014:i:2:p:487-496
    DOI: 10.1007/s00362-012-0493-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00362-012-0493-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00362-012-0493-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Berhanu Girma & Albert S. Paulson, 1998. "Seasonality in petroleum futures spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 581-598, August.
    2. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2011. "Detecting changes from short to long memory," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 847-870, November.
    3. Christian Dunis & Jason Laws & Ben Evans, 2008. "Trading futures spread portfolios: applications of higher order and recurrent networks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 503-521.
    4. Leïla Nouira & Mohamed Boutahar & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2009. "The effect of tapering on the semiparametric estimators for nonstationary long memory processes," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 225-248, March.
    5. Philipp Sibbertsen & Juliane Willert, 2012. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies and mean shifts," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 357-370, May.
    6. Werner Ploberger & Erhard Reschenhofer, 2010. "Testing for cycles in multiple time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 427-434, November.
    7. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wingert, Simon & Mboya, Mwasi Paza & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2020. "Distinguishing between breaks in the mean and breaks in persistence under long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Michael Frömmel & Robinson Kruse, 2012. "Testing for a rational bubble under long memory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1723-1732, November.
    3. Hassler, Uwe & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rubia, Antonio, 2014. "Persistence in the banking industry: Fractional integration and breaks in memory," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 95-112.
    4. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
    5. Chen, Zhanshou & Jin, Zi & Tian, Zheng & Qi, Peiyan, 2012. "Bootstrap testing multiple changes in persistence for a heavy-tailed sequence," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 2303-2316.
    6. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2020. "The memory of stock return volatility: Asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    7. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    8. Zhanshou Chen & Yanting Xiao & Fuxiao Li, 2021. "Monitoring memory parameter change-points in long-memory time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2365-2389, May.
    9. Jorge M. L. Andraz & Raúl F. C. Guerreiro & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2018. "Persistence of travel and leisure sector equity indices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1801-1825, June.
    10. Lubnau, Thorben & Todorova, Neda, 2015. "Trading on mean-reversion in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 312-319.
    11. Chen, Zhanshou & Xing, Yuhong & Li, Fuxiao, 2016. "Sieve bootstrap monitoring for change from short to long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 53-56.
    12. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    13. Guillermo Ferreira & Jorge Mateu & Jose A. Vilar & Joel Muñoz, 2021. "Bootstrapping regression models with locally stationary disturbances," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 30(2), pages 341-363, June.
    14. Assaf, Ata & Bhandari, Avishek & Charif, Husni & Demir, Ender, 2022. "Multivariate long memory structure in the cryptocurrency market: The impact of COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Lavička, Hynek & Kracík, Jiří, 2020. "Fluctuation analysis of electric power loads in Europe: Correlation multifractality vs. Distribution function multifractality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    16. Jinquan Liu & Tingguo Zheng & Jianli Sui, 2008. "Dual long memory of inflation and test of the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 240-254, June.
    17. Erhard Reschenhofer & Manveer K. Mangat, 2021. "Fast computation and practical use of amplitudes at non-Fourier frequencies," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 1755-1773, September.
    18. Pierre Perron & Zhongjun Qu, 2007. "An Analytical Evaluation of the Log-periodogram Estimate in the Presence of Level Shifts," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2007-044, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    19. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996. "Long-term dependence in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
    20. Christos Christodoulou-Volos & Fotios Siokis, 2006. "Long range dependence in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1331-1338.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:55:y:2014:i:2:p:487-496. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.