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Modelling conditional heteroskedasticity: Application to the "IBEX-35" stock-return index

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  • Angel León

    ()
    (Departamento de Economía Financiera, Universidad de Alicante, Apartado de Correos 99, E-03080 Alicante, Spain Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico, Universidad de Alicante, Apartado de Correos 99, E-03080 Alicante, Spain)

  • Juan Mora

    ()
    (Departamento de Economía Financiera, Universidad de Alicante, Apartado de Correos 99, E-03080 Alicante, Spain Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico, Universidad de Alicante, Apartado de Correos 99, E-03080 Alicante, Spain)

Abstract

This paper compares alternative time-varying volatility models for daily stock-returns using data from Spanish equity index IBEX-35. Specifically, we estimate a parametric family of models of generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity (which nests the most popular symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models), a semiparametric GARCH model, the generalized quadratic ARCH model, the stochastic volatility model, the Poisson Jump Diffusion model and, finally, a nonparametric model. Those models which use conditional standard deviation (specifically, TGARCH and AGARCH models) produce better fits than all other GARCH models. We also compare the within sample predictive power of all models using a standard efficiency test. Our results show that the asymmetric behaviour of responses is a statistically significant characteristic of these data. Moreover, we observe that specifications with a distribution which allows for fatter tails than a normal distribution do not necessarily outperform specifications with a normal distribution.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Spanish Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 1 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 215-238

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Handle: RePEc:spr:specre:v:1:y:1999:i:3:p:215-238

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Related research

Keywords: Conditional heteroskedasticity; prediction; stock-return index;

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Cited by:
  1. Vicente Meneu & Hipolit Torro, . "Asymmetric covariance in sport-future markets," Studies on the Spanish Economy 135, FEDEA.
  2. Eva Ferreira & Mónica Gago & Angel León & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "An empirical comparison of the performance of alternative option pricing models," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(3), pages 483-523, September.
  3. M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2001. "Outliers And Conditional Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity In Time Series," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws010704, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  4. Pilar Corredor Casado & Rafael Santamaría, . "La estructura temporal de las volatilidades implícitas en la opción sobre el Ibex-35," Studies on the Spanish Economy 04, FEDEA.
  5. León, Angel & Serna, Gregorio & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2004. "Autorregresive conditional volatility, skewness and kurtosis," DFAEII Working Papers 2002-06, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  6. Cunado Eizaguirre, Juncal & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Hidalgo, Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2004. "Structural changes in volatility and stock market development: Evidence for Spain," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1745-1773, July.
  7. Trino-Manuel Niguez & Javier Perote, 2004. "Forecasting the density of asset returns," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2004/479, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  8. Gabriele Fiorentini & Angel León & Gonzalo Rubio, . "Short-term options with stochastic volatility: Estimation and empirical performance," Studies on the Spanish Economy 02, FEDEA.
  9. Brooks, Robert, 2007. "Power arch modelling of the volatility of emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 124-133, May.
  10. Pena, Ignacio & Rubio, Gonzalo & Serna, Gregorio, 1999. "Why do we smile? On the determinants of the implied volatility function," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1151-1179, August.
  11. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2003. "Volatility And Var Forecasting For The Ibex-35 Stock-Return Index Using Figarch-Type Processes And Different Evaluation Criteria," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-33, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  12. Juan Luis Nicolau, 2001. "Parametric And Nonparametric Approaches To Event Studies: An Application To A Hotel'S Market Value," Working Papers. Serie AD 2001-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  13. Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2008. "Volatility and VaR forecasting in the Madrid Stock Exchange," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 169-196, September.

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