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Relationship Between FDI, Terrorism and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Pre and Post 9/11 Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Muhammad Zakaria

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Mobeen Ur Rehman

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Tanveer Ahmed

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Bashir Ahmed Fida

    (Modern College of Business and Sciences)

Abstract

The study examines cointegration and causal relationship between FDI, terrorism and economic growth in Pakistan using quarterly frequencies for the period 1988–2010. For empirical analysis data is divided into two sub-periods i.e. pre 9/11 (1988–2001) and post 9/11 (2002–2010) periods. The results show that long run cointegration holds between FDI, terrorism and economic growth. Granger causality results indicate that there is bidirectional short and long run causality between economic growth and FDI for both sub-samples. These findings are supported by variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. The findings suggest applicability of modernization theory to explain FDI and economic growth relationship. The results also reveal that terrorism has a deteriorating impact on FDI.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Muhammad Zakaria & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Tanveer Ahmed & Bashir Ahmed Fida, 2016. "Relationship Between FDI, Terrorism and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Pre and Post 9/11 Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 179-194, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:127:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-015-0950-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-015-0950-5
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    7. Simplice Asongu & John Ssozi, 2017. "When is Foreign Aid Effective in Fighting Terrorism? Threshold Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 370-389, July.
    8. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2018. "Do terrorist attacks harm financial markets? A meta-analysis of event studies and the determinants of adverse impact," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 227-247.
    9. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Conditional linkages between iron ore exports, foreign aid and terrorism," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 29(2), pages 57-70, December.
    10. Yilmaz Bayar & Marius Dan Gavriletea, 2018. "Peace, terrorism and economic growth in Middle East and North African countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2373-2392, September.
    11. Shahzad, Umer & Sarwar, Suleman & Farooq, Muhammad Umar & Qin, Fengming, 2020. "USAID, official development assistance and counter terrorism efforts: Pre and post 9/11 analysis for South Asia," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Asongu, Simplice, 2019. "Natural Resource Exports, Foreign Aid and Terrorism," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 74-94.
    13. Udi Joshua & Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi & Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie, 2020. "Global FDI Inflow and Its Implication across Economic Income Groups," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, November.
    14. Simplice Asongu & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2017. "Trade, aid and terror," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 2-24, April.
    15. Mansoor Maitah & Jehar Mustofa & Gok Ugur, 2017. "The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on Foreign Exchange Rate: Case Study of Turkish Lira versus Pound Sterling," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-8, January.
    16. Muhammad Sibt e Ali & UsmanUllah Khan & Dil Jan & Sabiha Parveen, 2021. "The Relationship between Financial Development and Foreign Direct Investmentand its Impact on Economic Growth ofPakistan," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(1), pages 27-37, june.
    17. Serfraz, Ayesha, 2017. "What is the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis in the light of religious sectarianism as catalyst for terrorism," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 59, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    18. Umer Shahzad & Fengming Qin, 2019. "New Terrorism and Capital Flight: Pre and Post Nine Eleven analysis for Asia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 465-487, May.
    19. Metaxas, Theodore & Kechagia, Polyxeni, 2017. "FDI and Terrorism in developing Asia: Approaches and Discussion," MPRA Paper 78165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mengmeng Hao & Jingying Fu & Dong Jiang & Fangyu Ding & Shuai Chen, 2020. "Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short‐Term Memory Algorithm," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1139-1150, June.
    21. Polyxeni, Kechagia & Theodore, Metaxas, 2019. "An empirical investigation of FDI inflows in developing economies: Terrorism as a determinant factor," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    22. Destek, Mehmet Akif & Manga, Müge & Cengiz, Orhan & Destek, Gamze, 2022. "Investigating the potential of renewable energy in establishing global peace: Fresh evidence from top energy consumer countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 170-177.
    23. Muhammad Athar Nadeem & Zhiying Liu & Haji Suleman Ali & Amna Younis & Muhammad Bilal & Yi Xu, 2020. "Innovation and Sustainable Development: Does Aid and Political Instability Impede Innovation?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; Terrorism; Economic growth; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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