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The Current Impact Factor and the long-term impact of scientific journals by discipline: A logistic diffusion model estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Contreras

    (Chilean Observatory of Science, Technology and Innovation (KAWAX), Bicentennial Program of Science and Technology (PBCT), National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research in Chile (CONICYT))

  • Gonzalo Edwards

    (Institute of Economics of the Catholic University of Chile)

  • Alejandra Mizala

    (Economics at the Center for Applied Economics, Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Chile)

Abstract

Summary This paper estimates the long-term impact of journals aggregated in 24 different fields, using a simple logistic diffusion model, and relates the results to the current impact factor. Results show that while the current and the long-term impact factors have a high correlation coefficient, some fields are systematically slower-moving than others, as they often differ in the proportion of the overall impact through time that occurs in the short term.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Contreras & Gonzalo Edwards & Alejandra Mizala, 2006. "The Current Impact Factor and the long-term impact of scientific journals by discipline: A logistic diffusion model estimation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 69(3), pages 689-696, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:69:y:2006:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-006-0165-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-006-0165-2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Erjen Van Nierop, 2009. "Why do statistics journals have low impact factors?," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(1), pages 52-62, February.
    2. Claudia Contreras & Gonzalo Edwards & Alejandra Mizala, 2006. "La Productividad Científica de Economía y Administración en Chile. Un Análisis Comparativo," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(128), pages 331-354.
    3. Pilar Valderrama & Manuel Escabias & Evaristo Jiménez-Contreras & Mariano J. Valderrama & Pilar Baca, 2018. "A mixed longitudinal and cross-sectional model to forecast the journal impact factor in the field of Dentistry," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(2), pages 1203-1212, August.

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