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Comprehensive evaluation of ice disaster risk of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach in the upper Yellow River

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  • Cheng-Guo Wu
  • Yi-Ming Wei
  • Ju-Liang Jin
  • Qiang Huang
  • Yu-Liang Zhou
  • Li Liu

Abstract

The Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach, in the upper Yellow River, is one of the most serious reaches suffering from ice flood disaster in China. Firstly, according to its characteristics of ice condition evolution and ice disaster, the concept of ice disaster risk of Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach was defined, the risk factors of ice disaster were discussed, and the theory and method of “risk identification–risk estimation–risk assessment–risk management” for the ice disaster risk analysis of Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach was proposed. Then, the comprehensive evaluation model of ice disaster risk was established using the projection pursuit, fuzzy clustering and accelerating genetic algorithm method. Finally, the ice disaster risk grade was formulated, and the ice disaster risk of 1991–2010 for the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach was evaluated in this paper. The results show that the application results were consistent with the practical characteristics of water regime, meteorological and ice condition, revealing the rationality of the risk evaluation model. This study aims at enriching and developing the theory and method for the ice disaster risk analysis and providing scientific decision basis for the ice-prevention preparedness of Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach, in the upper Yellow River. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng-Guo Wu & Yi-Ming Wei & Ju-Liang Jin & Qiang Huang & Yu-Liang Zhou & Li Liu, 2015. "Comprehensive evaluation of ice disaster risk of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach in the upper Yellow River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 179-197, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:2:p:179-197
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1308-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hao, Lu & Yang, Li-Zhe & Gao, Jing-Min, 2014. "The application of information diffusion technique in probabilistic analysis to grassland biological disasters risk," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 264-270.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dang Luo & Wenxin Mao & Huifang Sun, 2017. "Risk assessment and analysis of ice disaster in Ning–Meng reach of Yellow River based on a two-phased intelligent model under grey information environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 591-610, August.
    2. Ruiling Sun & Ge Gao & Zaiwu Gong & Jie Wu, 2020. "A review of risk analysis methods for natural disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 571-593, January.
    3. Jianxia Chang & Xuebin Wang & Yunyun Li & Yimin Wang, 2016. "Ice regime variation impacted by reservoir operation in the Ning-Meng reach of the Yellow River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1015-1030, January.
    4. Wenxin Mao & Wenping Wang & Dang Luo & Huifang Sun, 2019. "Analyzing interactions between risk factors for ice disaster in Ning-Meng reach of Yellow River based on grey rough DEMATEL method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(3), pages 1025-1049, July.
    5. Jianxia Chang & Xuebin Wang & Yunyun Li & Yimin Wang, 2016. "Ice regime variation impacted by reservoir operation in the Ning-Meng reach of the Yellow River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1015-1030, January.

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