IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v18y2013i5p619-636.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO 2 emissions and mitigation costs

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The UN Framework Convention of Climate Change 15th Conference of the Parties Copenhagen Accord has been followed up by national pledges of greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the year 2020 without specifying measures to enforce actions. As a consequence, the capacity of parties to fulfil their obligations is of basic interest. This article outlines the effects of full compliance with pledges on greenhouse gas emissions, economic growth, and trade. The study is based on the global computable general equilibrium model global responses to anthropogenic changes in the environment (GRACE) distinguishing between fossil and non-fossil energy use. Global emissions from fossil fuels in 2020 turn out to be 15 % lower than in a business as usual scenario and 3 % below the global emissions from fossil fuels in 2005. China and India increase their emissions to 1 % and 5 % above business as usual levels in 2020. India and Russia increase their net export of steel corresponding to around 30 and 45 % of their production levels in 2020. In spite of some leakage of energy intensive production also to China, we find that structural change remains the dominant factor behind the rapid reduction of CO 2 emission intensity in China towards 2020. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Knut Alfsen, 2013. "Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO 2 emissions and mitigation costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 619-636, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:5:p:619-636
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9378-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11027-012-9378-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-012-9378-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jotzo, Frank, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen emissions targets," Working Papers 249378, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    2. Joeri Rogelj & Julia Nabel & Claudine Chen & William Hare & Kathleen Markmann & Malte Meinshausen & Michiel Schaeffer & Kirsten Macey & Niklas Höhne, 2010. "Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7292), pages 1126-1128, April.
    3. Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2011. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis Of The Copenhagen Accord," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 79-103.
    4. Rive, Nathan, 2010. "Climate policy in Western Europe and avoided costs of air pollution control," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 103-115, January.
    5. Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim & Duscha, Vicki, 2011. "Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3697-3708, June.
    6. Rob Dellink & Gregory Briner & Christa Clapp, 2010. "Costs, Revenues, and Effectiveness of the Copenhagen Accord Emission Pledges for 2020," OECD Environment Working Papers 22, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Babatunde, Kazeem Alasinrin & Begum, Rawshan Ara & Said, Fathin Faizah, 2017. "Application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) to climate change mitigation policy: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 61-71.
    2. Wei, Taoyuan & Liu, Yang, 2017. "Estimation of global rebound effect caused by energy efficiency improvement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 27-34.
    3. Yang Liu & Taoyuan Wei, 2016. "Linking the emissions trading schemes of Europe and China - Combining climate and energy policy instruments," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 135-151, February.
    4. Wei, Taoyuan & Zhu, Qin & Glomsrød, Solveig, 2018. "How Will Demographic Characteristics of the Labor Force Matter for the Global Economy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 197-207.
    5. Lining Wang & Wenying Chen & XunZhang Pan & Nan Li & Huan Wang & Danyang Li & Han Chen, 2018. "Scale and benefit of global carbon markets under the 2 °C goal: integrated modeling and an effort-sharing platform," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 1207-1223, December.
    6. Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Torben Mideksa & Bjørn Samset, 2015. "Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1511-1527, December.
    7. Wei Li & Zhijie Jia, 2017. "Carbon tax, emission trading, or the mixed policy: which is the most effective strategy for climate change mitigation in China?," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 973-992, August.
    8. Lining Wang & Wenying Chen & Hongjun Zhang & Ding Ma, 2017. "Dynamic equity carbon permit allocation scheme to limit global warming to two degrees," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 609-628, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vicki Duscha & Katja Schumacher & Joachim Schleich & Pierre Buisson, 2014. "Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 327-352, May.
    2. Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper, 2011. "Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7361-7371.
    3. Howes, Stephen & Wyrwoll, Paul, 2012. "Climate Change Mitigation and Green Growth in Developing Asia," ADBI Working Papers 369, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Standardi, Gabriele & Cai, Yiyong & Yeh, Sonia, 2017. "Sensitivity of modeling results to technological and regional details: The case of Italy's carbon mitigation policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 116-128.
    5. Bollen, Johannes, 2015. "The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies: Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called WorldScan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 178-191.
    6. Stephen Howes & Paul Wyrwoll, 2012. "Climate Change Mitigation and Green Growth in Developing Asia," Working Papers id:5059, eSocialSciences.
    7. Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets," CCEP Working Papers 0110, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2011. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis Of The Copenhagen Accord," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 79-103.
    9. Lim, Jaekyu, 2011. "Impacts and implications of implementing voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in major countries and Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5086-5095, September.
    10. Lu, Yingying & Stegman, Alison & Cai, Yiyong, 2013. "Emissions intensity targeting: From China's 12th Five Year Plan to its Copenhagen commitment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1164-1177.
    11. Rob Dellink & Gregory Briner & Christa Clapp, 2011. "The Copenhagen Accord/Cancún Agreements Emission Pledges For 2020: Exploring Economic And Environmental Impacts," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 53-78.
    12. Warwick J McKibbin & Adele C Morris & Peter J Wilcoxen, 2012. "Bridging the Gap: Integrating Price Mechanisms Into International Climate Negotiations," CAMA Working Papers 2012-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Jotzo, Frank & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve, 2011. "Price Floors in Emissions Trading to Reduce Policy Related Investment Risks: an Australian View," Working Papers 249528, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    14. Olivia Ricci & Sandrine Selosse, 2013. "A cost analysis of the Copenhagen emission reduction pledges," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 764-771.
    15. A. F. Hof & M. G. J. Elzen & A. Mendoza Beltran, 2016. "The EU 40 % greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 375-392, June.
    16. John Byrne & Lado Kurdgelashvili & Job Taminiau, 2012. "Social change to avert further climate change: defining the scale of change and principles to guide a new strategy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 17-40, July.
    17. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    18. Peter Lloyd, 2012. "The Role Of Developing Countries In Global Economic Governance," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(02), pages 1-20.
    19. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie, 2016. "The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota: A dynamic recursive CGE model in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-14.
    20. Nordhaus, William, 2013. "Integrated Economic and Climate Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1069-1131, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:5:p:619-636. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.