A complex systems methodology to transition management
AbstractThere is a general sense of urgency that major technological transitions are required for sustainable development. Such transitions are best perceived as involving multiple transition steps along a transition path. Due to the path dependent and irreversible nature of innovation in complex technologies, an initial transition step along some preferred path may cut off paths that later may turn out to be more desirable. For these reasons, initial transition steps should allow for future flexibility, where we define flexibility as robustness regarding changing evidence and changing preferences. We propose a technology assessment methodology that identifies the flexibility of initial transition steps in complex technologies. We illustrate our methodology by an empirical application to 2646 possible future car systems.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.
Volume (Year): 19 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00191/index.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Malte Schwoon & Floortje Alkemade & Koen Frenken & Marko P. Hekkert, 2008. "A complex systems methodology to transition management," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-12, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Apr 2008.
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- O32 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
- Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
- Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
- Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Herbert A. Simon, 2002. "Near decomposability and the speed of evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 587-599, June.
- Philip Auerswald & Stuart Kauffman & Jose Lobo & Karl Shell, 1998.
"The Production Recipes Approach to Modeling Technological Innovation: An Application to Learning By Doing,"
98-11-100, Santa Fe Institute.
- Auerswald, Philip & Kauffman, Stuart & Lobo, Jose & Shell, Karl, 2000. "The production recipes approach to modeling technological innovation: An application to learning by doing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 389-450, March.
- Cowan, Robin, 1990.
"Nuclear Power Reactors: A Study in Technological Lock-in,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(03), pages 541-567, September.
- Cowan, Robin, 1988. "Nuclear Power Reactors: A Study In Technological Lock-In," Working Papers 88-33, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Saviotti, P. P. & Metcalfe, J. S., 1984. "A theoretical approach to the construction of technological output indicators," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 141-151, June.
- Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2002.
"A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology Spaces,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2002
24, Society for Computational Economics.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2005. "A percolation model of innovation in complex technology spaces," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 225-244, January.
- Silverberg, G. & Verspagen, B., 2002. "A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology Spaces," Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series 02.12, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS).
- Kauffman, Stuart & Lobo, Jose & Macready, William G., 2000. "Optimal search on a technology landscape," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 141-166, October.
- Jeroen Bergh, 2007.
"Evolutionary thinking in environmental economics,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 521-549, October.
- Jeroen Struben & John D Sterman, 2008. "Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(6), pages 1070-1097, November.
- Markard, Jochen & Stadelmann, Martin & Truffer, Bernhard, 2009. "Prospective analysis of technological innovation systems: Identifying technological and organizational development options for biogas in Switzerland," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 655-667, May.
- Ardjan Gazheli & Miklós Antal & Ben Drake & Tim Jackson & Sigrid Stagl & Jeroen van den Bergh & Manuel Wäckerle, 2013. "Policy responses by different agents/stakeholders in a transition: Integrating the Multi-level Perspective and behavioral economics," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 48, WWWforEurope.
- Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
- Paolo Zeppini & Koen Frenken & Roland Kupers, 2013. "Threshold models of technological transitions," Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series 13-06, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS), revised Aug 2013.
- Lopolito, A. & Morone, P. & Taylor, R., 2013. "Emerging innovation niches: An agent based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1225-1238.
- Arman Avadikyan & Patrick Llerena, 2009. "Socio-technical transition processes: A real option based reasoning," Working Papers of BETA 2009-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Floris J. Huétink & Alexander van der Vooren & Floortje Alkemade, 2009. "Initial infrastructure development strategies for the transition to sustainable mobility," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 09-05, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Mar 2009.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.