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Public debt and total factor productivity

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  • Leo Kaas

Abstract

This paper explores the role of public debt and fiscal deficits on factor productivity in an economy with credit market frictions and heterogeneous firms. When credit market conditions are sufficiently weak, low interest rates permit the government to run Ponzi schemes so that permanent primary deficits can be sustained. For small enough deficit ratios, the model has two steady states of which one is an unstable bubble and the other one is stable. The stable equilibrium features higher levels of credit and capital, but also a lower interest rate, lower total factor productivity and output. The model is calibrated to the US economy to derive the maximum sustainable deficit ratio and to examine the dynamic responses to changes in debt policy. A reduction in the primary deficit triggers an expansion of credit and capital, but it also leads to a deterioration of total factor productivity since more low-productivity firms prefer to remain active at the lower equilibrium interest rate. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Leo Kaas, 2016. "Public debt and total factor productivity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 309-333, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:61:y:2016:i:2:p:309-333
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-015-0900-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Jun & Xu, Haokun & Zhang, Yue, 2022. "Local government debt and firm productivity: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Alessandro Bellocchi & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2021. "What drives TFP long-run dynamics in five large European economies?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 569-595, July.
    3. Alimov, Behzod, 2019. "Private debt, public debt, and capital misallocation," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 7/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit constraints; Unbacked public debt; Dynamic inefficiency; Sustainable deficits; D92; E62; H62;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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