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Inferring repeated-game strategies from actions: evidence from trust game experiments

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Author Info
Jim Engle-Warnick ()
Robert Slonim ()

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Abstract

Combining a strategy model, an inference procedure and a new experimental design, we map sequences of observed actions in repeated games to unobserved strategies that reflect decision-makers’ plans. We demonstrate the method by studying two institutional settings with distinct theoretical predictions. We find that almost all strategies inferred are best responses to one of the inferred strategies of other players, and in one of the settings almost all of the inferred strategies, which include triggers to punish non-cooperators, are consistent with equilibrium strategies. By developing a method to infer unobserved repeated-game strategies from actions, we take a step toward making game theory a more applied tool, bridging a gap between theory and observed behavior. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00199-005-0633-6
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 28 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 603-632
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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:28:y:2006:i:3:p:603-632

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Related research
Keywords: Repeated games; Strategies; Finite automata; Trust; Experimental economics.;

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  1. Ido Erev & Alvin Roth & Robert Slonim & Greg Barron, 2007. "Learning and equilibrium as useful approximations: Accuracy of prediction on randomly selected constant sum games," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 29-51, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Benito Arruñada & Marco Casari, 2007. "How enforcement institutions affect markets," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1200, Purdue University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. John Duffy, 2004. "Agent-Based Models and Human Subject Experiments," Computational Economics 0412001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pedro Dal Bo & Guillaume R. Frechette, . "The Evolution of Cooperation in Infinitely Repeated Games: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 2007-7, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Masaki Aoyagi & Guillaume R. Frechette, 2004. "Collusion in Repeated Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000127, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. ENGLE-WARNICK, Jim & McCAUSLAND, William J. & MILLER, John H., 2004. "The Ghost in the Machine: Inferring Machine-Based Strategies from Observed Behavior," Cahiers de recherche 2004-11, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jim Engle-Warnick, 2007. "Five Indefinitely Repeated Games in the Laboratory," CIRANO Working Papers 2007s-11, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  8. Eline van der Heijden & Jan Potters & Martin Sefton, 2006. "Hierarchy and Opportunism in Teams," Discussion Papers 2006-15, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Pedro Dal Bó, 2005. "Cooperation under the Shadow of the Future: Experimental Evidence from Infinitely Repeated Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1591-1604, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. M. Utku Unver, 2001. "Internet Auctions with Artificial Adaptive Agents," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 38, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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