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Simultaneous dependence between firm-level stock returns

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  • Kenneth Moon
  • James LeSage

Abstract

We show that use of ordinary least-squares to explore relationships involving firm-level stock returns as the dependent variable in the face of structured dependence between individual firms leads to an endogeneity problem. This in turn leads to biased and inconsistent least-squares estimates. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure that will produce consistent estimates in these situations is illustrated. This is done using methods that have been developed to deal with spatial dependence between regional data observations, which can be applied to situations involving firm-level observations that exhibit a structure of dependence. In addition, we show how to correctly interpret maximum likelihood parameter estimates from these models in the context of firm-level dependence, and provide a Monte Carlo as well as applied illustration of the magnitude of bias that can arise. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Moon & James LeSage, 2013. "Simultaneous dependence between firm-level stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(4), pages 479-494, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:37:y:2013:i:4:p:479-494
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-011-9188-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lakonishok, Josef & Lev, Baruch, 1987. "Stock Splits and Stock Dividends: Why, Who, and When," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 913-932, September.
    2. So, Raymond W & Tse, Yiuman, 2000. "Rationality of Stock Splits: The Target-Price Habit Hypothesis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 67-84, January.
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    4. Christo Pirinsky & Qinghai Wang, 2006. "Does Corporate Headquarters Location Matter for Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1991-2015, August.
    5. Lung-Fei Lee, 2004. "Asymptotic Distributions of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Spatial Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1899-1925, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dependent Observations; Local Market Indices; OLS Bias; Monte Carlo Simulation; C21; G11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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