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Quantitative error estimates for a least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm for American option pricing

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  • Daniel Zanger

Abstract

We prove new error estimates for the Longstaff–Schwartz algorithm. We establish an $O(\log^{\frac{1}{2}}(N)N^{-\frac{1}{2}})$ convergence rate for the expected L 2 sample error of this algorithm (where N is the number of Monte Carlo sample paths), whenever the approximation architecture of the algorithm is an arbitrary set of L 2 functions with finite Vapnik–Chervonenkis dimension. Incorporating bounds on the approximation error as well, we then apply these results to the case of approximation schemes defined by finite-dimensional vector spaces of polynomials as well as that of certain nonlinear sets of neural networks. We obtain corresponding estimates even when the underlying and payoff processes are not necessarily almost surely bounded. These results extend and strengthen those of Egloff (Ann. Appl. Probab. 15, 1396–1432, 2005 ), Egloff et al. (Ann. Appl. Probab. 17, 1138–1171, 2007 ), Kohler et al. (Math. Finance 20, 383–410, 2010 ), Glasserman and Yu (Ann. Appl. Probab. 14, 2090–2119, 2004 ), Clément et al. (Finance Stoch. 6, 449–471, 2002 ) as well as others. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Zanger, 2013. "Quantitative error estimates for a least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm for American option pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 503-534, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:17:y:2013:i:3:p:503-534
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-013-0204-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Daniel Zanger, 2009. "Convergence of a Least-Squares Monte Carlo Algorithm for Bounded Approximating Sets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 123-150.
    3. Bender, Christian & Denk, Robert, 2007. "A forward scheme for backward SDEs," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 117(12), pages 1793-1812, December.
    4. Lars Stentoft, 2004. "Convergence of the Least Squares Monte Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1193-1203, September.
    5. Philip Protter & Emmanuelle Clément & Damien Lamberton, 2002. "An analysis of a least squares regression method for American option pricing," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 449-471.
    6. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    7. Lars Stentoft, 2004. "Assessing the Least Squares Monte-Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 129-168, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kharroubi Idris & Langrené Nicolas & Pham Huyên, 2014. "A numerical algorithm for fully nonlinear HJB equations: An approach by control randomization," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 145-165, June.
    2. D. Belomestny & M. Kaledin & J. Schoenmakers, 2019. "Semi-tractability of optimal stopping problems via a weighted stochastic mesh algorithm," Papers 1906.09431, arXiv.org.
    3. Zhiyi Shen & Chengguo Weng, 2019. "A Backward Simulation Method for Stochastic Optimal Control Problems," Papers 1901.06715, arXiv.org.
    4. Daniel Z. Zanger, 2020. "General Error Estimates for the Longstaff–Schwartz Least-Squares Monte Carlo Algorithm," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 923-946, August.
    5. S'ergio C. Bezerra & Alberto Ohashi & Francesco Russo & Francys de Souza, 2017. "Discrete-type approximations for non-Markovian optimal stopping problems: Part II," Papers 1707.05250, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2019.
    6. Denis Belomestny & Maxim Kaledin & John Schoenmakers, 2020. "Semitractability of optimal stopping problems via a weighted stochastic mesh algorithm," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1591-1616, October.
    7. Hampus Engsner, 2021. "Least Squares Monte Carlo applied to Dynamic Monetary Utility Functions," Papers 2101.10947, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    8. Yasa Syed & Guanyang Wang, 2023. "Optimal randomized multilevel Monte Carlo for repeatedly nested expectations," Papers 2301.04095, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    9. Christian Bayer & Juho Happola & Ra'ul Tempone, 2017. "Implied Stopping Rules for American Basket Options from Markovian Projection," Papers 1705.00558, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    10. Chen Liu & Henry Schellhorn & Qidi Peng, 2019. "American Option Pricing With Regression: Convergence Analysis," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-31, December.
    11. Christian Bayer & Martin Redmann & John Schoenmakers, 2018. "Dynamic programming for optimal stopping via pseudo-regression," Papers 1808.04725, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    12. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Paletta, Tommaso & Tunaru, Radu, 2017. "An improved least squares Monte Carlo valuation method based on heteroscedasticity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 698-706.
    13. Sérgio C. Bezerra & Alberto Ohashi & Francesco Russo & Francys Souza, 2020. "Discrete-type Approximations for Non-Markovian Optimal Stopping Problems: Part II," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1221-1255, September.
    14. Denis Belomestny & Stefan Hafner & Mikhail Urusov, 2016. "Regression-based complexity reduction of the nested Monte Carlo methods," Papers 1611.06344, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Least-squares Monte Carlo; Longstaff–Schwartz algorithm; American options; Dynamic programming; Statistical learning; 91G20; 91G60; 60G40; G12; C61; C63;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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