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Can statisticians beat surgeons at the planning of operations?

Author

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  • Paul Joustra
  • Reinier Meester
  • Hans Ophem

Abstract

The planning of operations in the Academic Medical Center is primarily based on the assessments of the length of the operation by the surgeons. We investigate whether duration models employing the information available at the moment the planning is made, offer a better alternative. Our empirical results indicate that statistical methods often do better than surgeons. This does not imply that the surgeons’ predictions do not contain valuable information. This information is a key explanatory variable in our statistical models. What our conclusion does entail is that a correction of the predictions of surgeons is possible because they are often under- or overestimating the actual length of operations. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Joustra & Reinier Meester & Hans Ophem, 2013. "Can statisticians beat surgeons at the planning of operations?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1697-1718, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:44:y:2013:i:3:p:1697-1718
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0594-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bago d'Uva, Teresa & Jones, Andrew M., 2009. "Health care utilisation in Europe: New evidence from the ECHP," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 265-279, March.
    2. Stepaniak, P.S. & Heij, C. & de Vries, G., 2009. "Modeling and prediction of surgical procedure times," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-26, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Pieter S. Stepaniak & Christiaan Heij & Guus De Vries, 2010. "Modeling and prediction of surgical procedure times," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 64(1), pages 1-18, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Enis Kayış & Taghi Khaniyev & Jaap Suermondt & Karl Sylvester, 2015. "A robust estimation model for surgery durations with temporal, operational, and surgery team effects," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 222-233, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient planning of operations; Duration models; Cost reduction; I10; I12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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