IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v20y1995i4p667-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expectations and Interest Rates on Mortgage Loans

Author

Listed:
  • Mitusch, Kay
  • Nautz, Dieter

Abstract

We examine the role of expectations for interest rates on mortgage loans. Our empirical results, based on cointegration tests, indicate a violation of the expectations hypothesis on the German loan market. In contrast to the capital market, a failure of the expectations hypothesis on the loan market cannot be attributed to the market segmentation hypothesis. Using a simple two-period model, we can show that the deviation from the expectations hypothesis is stronger than on the capital market and such that it confirms the common practice of choosing between loans with variable or fixed interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitusch, Kay & Nautz, Dieter, 1995. "Expectations and Interest Rates on Mortgage Loans," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 667-680.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:20:y:1995:i:4:p:667-80
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melino, Angelo, 1988. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(4), pages 335-366.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Dhillon, Upinder S & Shilling, James D & Sirmans, C F, 1987. "Choosing between Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 260-267, May.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    5. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    7. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    8. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, Decembrie.
    9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    10. Brueckner, Jan K & Follain, James R, 1988. "The Rise and Fall of the ARM: An Econometric Analysis of Mortgage Choice," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 93-102, February.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    12. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1996. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: The UK Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 578-592, May.
    2. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    3. Jurgen Wolters, 1998. "Cointegration and German bond yields," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(8), pages 497-502.
    4. Johannes Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay, 2010. "A Rational Expectations Consistent Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 769-793, December.
    5. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    6. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    7. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    8. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
    9. Rocco Mosconi & Paolo Paruolo, 2022. "A Conversation with Søren Johansen," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16, April.
    10. repec:adr:anecst:y:1998:i:52:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Vidal Fernadez Montoro, 2001. "Expectations and Behaviour of the Spanish Treasury Bill Rates Patterns in Neighboring Areas," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 5(1), pages 61-83, Summer.
    12. Luca Taschini & Matteo Bonato, 2016. "Comovement and the Financialization of Commodities," Working Papers 64, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    13. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    14. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "The Bundesbank's Inflation Policy and Asymmetric Behavior of the German Term Structure," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 495-508, August.
    16. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1994. "Common stochastic trends in a system of Eurocurrency rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1047-1061, December.
    17. Éric Jondeau & Roland Ricart, 1998. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir de titres publics français," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 52, pages 1-22.
    18. Kakali Kanjilal, 2014. "Rational expectation hypothesis: empirical evidence from government debt market in India," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 353-370.
    19. Patel, Ajay & Shoesmith, Gary L., 2004. "Term structure linkages surrounding the Plaza and Louvre accords: Evidence from Euro-rates and long-memory components," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2051-2075, September.
    20. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1998. "Interest Rates in Germany and the UK: Cointegration and Error Correction Models," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(1), pages 27-43, January.
    21. Montoro, V.F., 2001. "Expectations and the behaviour of Spanish treasury bill rates," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0112, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:20:y:1995:i:4:p:667-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.