Modelling Nonlinearity in U.S. Gross National Product 1889-1987
AbstractThis paper considers modelling the annual logarithmed per capita gross national product of the United States in 1889-1987. Some authors have suggested that the parameters of the process generating the data have changed over time but formal parameter constancy tests do not support this argument. The series turns out to be nonlinear and can be adequately characterized by an exponential smooth transition autoregressive model. For comparison, a detrended series is also considered, found nonlinear and modelled using a logistic smooth transition autoregressive model. The behaviour of the estimated models is discussed, and it is seen that nonlinearity is needed to describe the response of the process to exceptionally large exogenous shocks. The properties of the models are further investigated by forecasting several years ahead and the forecasts are compared with those from other linear and nonlinear models.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 20 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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- Karamé, F., 2012.
"An algorithm for generalized impulse-response functions in Markov-switching structural VAR,"
Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 230-234.
- Frédéric Karamé, 2012. "An Algorithm for Generalized Impulse-Response Functions in Markov-Switching Structural VAR," Documents de recherche 12-04, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
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