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Using Survey Data to Test Market Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Markets

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  • Liu, Peter C
  • Maddala, G S

Abstract

This paper uses cointegration methods to test the market efficiency hypothesis (MEH) in the foreign exchange markets. Four exchange rates are considered--all relative to the U.S. dollar: British Pound, Deutsche Mark, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Survey data on expectations are used to see whether the violation of the MEH is due to expectational errors or risk premia. The results differ for the one-week ahead and the one-month ahead forecasts. With the weekly data they conclude that it is risk premia, and with the monthly data it is both expectational errors and risk premia that account for the violation of the MEH. Given the volatility of the exchange markets, it appears that forecasts over an extended period fail tests of rationality, but one-week ahead forecasts do not fail such tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Peter C & Maddala, G S, 1992. "Using Survey Data to Test Market Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 303-314.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:17:y:1992:i:2:p:303-14
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    Cited by:

    1. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    2. Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil, 2000. "Rationality of Japanese macroeconomic survey forecasts: empirical evidence and comparisons with the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-31, January.
    3. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
    4. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.
    5. Joachim Zietz & Ghassem Homaifar, 1994. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(3), pages 461-475, September.
    6. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
    7. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.
    8. Marco Mazzoli & Christian Barducci, 2009. "Testing exchange rate efficiency: the case of euro-dollar," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 521-540.
    9. Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Radu S. & Urga, Giovanni, 2015. "Trading strategies with implied forward credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 361-375.

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