IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/demogr/v54y2017i6d10.1007_s13524-017-0623-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old-Age Mortality Estimates

Author

Listed:
  • Dan A. Black

    (University of Chicago
    IZA
    NORC)

  • Yu-Chieh Hsu

    (University of Chicago
    NORC)

  • Seth G. Sanders

    (NORC
    Duke University)

  • Lynne Steuerle Schofield

    (Swarthmore College)

  • Lowell J. Taylor

    (IZA
    NORC
    Carnegie Mellon University
    National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

We examine inferences about old-age mortality that arise when researchers use survey data matched to death records. We show that even small rates of failure to match respondents can lead to substantial bias in the measurement of mortality rates at older ages. This type of measurement error is consequential for three strands in the demographic literature: (1) the deceleration in mortality rates at old ages; (2) the black-white mortality crossover; and (3) the relatively low rate of old-age mortality among Hispanics, often called the “Hispanic paradox.” Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men matched to death records in both the U.S. Vital Statistics system and the Social Security Death Index, we demonstrate that even small rates of missing mortality matching plausibly lead to an appearance of mortality deceleration when none exists and can generate a spurious black-white mortality crossover. We confirm these findings using data from the National Health Interview Survey matched to the U.S. Vital Statistics system, a data set known as the “gold standard” (Cowper et al. 2002) for estimating age-specific mortality. Moreover, with these data, we show that the Hispanic paradox is also plausibly explained by a similar undercount.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan A. Black & Yu-Chieh Hsu & Seth G. Sanders & Lynne Steuerle Schofield & Lowell J. Taylor, 2017. "The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old-Age Mortality Estimates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2001-2024, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0623-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-017-0623-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13524-017-0623-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13524-017-0623-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bert Kestenbaum, 1992. "A description of the extreme aged population based on improved medicare enrollment data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(4), pages 565-580, November.
    2. Matthew Dupre & Alexis Franzese & Emilio Parrado, 2006. "Religious attendance and mortality: Implications for the black-white mortality crossover," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(1), pages 141-164, February.
    3. Abraído-Lanza, A.F. & Dohrenwend, B.P. & Ng-Mak, D.S. & Turner, J.B., 1999. "The Latino mortality paradox: A test of the 'salmon bias' and healthy migrant hypotheses," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 89(10), pages 1543-1548.
    4. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1951_6n2_0204 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Allan Parnell & Cynthia R. Owens, 1999. "Evaluation of U.S. Mortality Patterns at Old Ages Using the Medicare Enrollment Data Base," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(2).
    6. Ryan Masters, 2012. "Uncrossing the U.S. Black-White Mortality Crossover: The Role of Cohort Forces in Life Course Mortality Risk," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 773-796, August.
    7. Leonid Gavrilov & Natalia Gavrilova, 2011. "Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 432-447.
    8. Lariscy, Joseph, 2011. "Differential Record Linkage by Hispanic Ethnicity and Age in Linked Mortality Studies: Implications for the Epidemiologic Paradox," SocArXiv tw9a4, Center for Open Science.
    9. Samuel Preston & Irma Elo & Ira Rosenwaike & Mark Hill, 1996. "African-american mortality at older ages: Results of a matching study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(2), pages 193-209, May.
    10. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2014. "Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 51-71, February.
    11. Samuel H. Preston & Irma T. Elo, 2006. "Black Mortality at Very Old Ages in Official US Life Tables: A Skeptical Appraisal," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(3), pages 557-566, September.
    12. Robert Myers, 1978. "An investigation of the age of an alleged centenarian," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 15(2), pages 235-236, May.
    13. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
    14. Lisa Berkman & Burton Singer & Kenneth Manton, 1989. "Black/White Differences in Health Status and Mortality Among the Elderly," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(4), pages 661-678, November.
    15. Nan Johnson, 2000. "The racial crossover in comorbidity, disability, and mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(3), pages 267-283, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joshua R. Goldstein & Maria Osborne & Serge Atherwood & Casey F. Breen, 2023. "Mortality Modeling of Partially Observed Cohorts Using Administrative Death Records," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Janice Compton & Robert A Pollak, 2021. "The life expectancy of older couples and surviving spouses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-13, May.
    3. Dustin C. Brown & Joseph T. Lariscy & Lucie Kalousová, 2019. "Comparability of Mortality Estimates from Social Surveys and Vital Statistics Data in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(3), pages 371-401, June.
    4. Saul Justin Newman, 2018. "Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Brown, Dustin C, 2019. "Comparability of Mortality Estimates from Social Surveys and Vital Statistics Data in the United States," SocArXiv x9f5y, Center for Open Science.
    6. Engy Ziedan & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2022. "Mortality Effects of Healthcare Supply Shocks: Evidence Using Linked Deaths and Electronic Health Records," NBER Working Papers 30553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alexander, Monica, 2018. "Deaths without denominators: using a matched dataset to study mortality patterns in the United States," SocArXiv q79ye, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ryan Masters, 2012. "Uncrossing the U.S. Black-White Mortality Crossover: The Role of Cohort Forces in Life Course Mortality Risk," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 773-796, August.
    2. Andrew Fenelon, 2013. "An examination of black/white differences in the rate of age-related mortality increase," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(17), pages 441-472.
    3. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2020. "Multidimensional Mortality Selection: Why Individual Dimensions of Frailty Don’t Act Like Frailty," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(2), pages 747-777, April.
    4. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2014. "Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 51-71, February.
    5. Joseph T. Lariscy, 2017. "Black–White Disparities in Adult Mortality: Implications of Differential Record Linkage for Understanding the Mortality Crossover," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 137-156, February.
    6. Anna Zajacova & Sarah Burgard, 2013. "Healthier, Wealthier, and Wiser: A Demonstration of Compositional Changes in Aging Cohorts Due to Selective Mortality," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(3), pages 311-324, June.
    7. Matthew E Dupre & Danan Gu & James W Vaupel, 2012. "Survival Differences among Native-Born and Foreign-Born Older Adults in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(5), pages 1-8, May.
    8. Hui Zheng, 2014. "Aging in the Context of Cohort Evolution and Mortality Selection," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(4), pages 1295-1317, August.
    9. Ryan Masters & Robert Hummer & Daniel Powers & Audrey Beck & Shih-Fan Lin & Brian Finch, 2014. "Long-Term Trends in Adult Mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: An Examination of Period- and Cohort-Based Changes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2047-2073, December.
    10. Michael Murphy, 2010. "Reexamining the Dominance of Birth Cohort Effects on Mortality," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 365-390, June.
    11. Virginia Zarulli, 2016. "Unobserved Heterogeneity of Frailty in the Analysis of Socioeconomic Differences in Health and Mortality," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 55-72, February.
    12. Hui Zheng, 2020. "Unobserved population heterogeneity and dynamics of health disparities," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(34), pages 1009-1048.
    13. Kevin Milligan & Tammy Schirle, 2021. "The evolution of longevity: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 164-192, February.
    14. Ting Li & Yang Yang & James Anderson, 2013. "Mortality Increase in Late-Middle and Early-Old Age: Heterogeneity in Death Processes as a New Explanation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1563-1591, October.
    15. Shiro Horiuchi & Nadine Ouellette & Siu Lan Karen Cheung & Jean-Marie Robine, 2013. "Modal age at death: lifespan indicator in the era of longevity extension," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 11(1), pages 37-69.
    16. Saul Justin Newman, 2018. "Errors as a primary cause of late-life mortality deceleration and plateaus," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Mark Hill & Samuel Preston & Ira Rosenwaike, 2000. "Age reporting among white Americans aged 85+: Results of a record linkage study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(2), pages 175-186, May.
    18. Mara Sheftel & Frank W. Heiland, 2018. "Disability crossover: Is there a Hispanic immigrant health advantage that reverses from working to old age?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(7), pages 209-250.
    19. Brown, Dustin C, 2019. "Comparability of Mortality Estimates from Social Surveys and Vital Statistics Data in the United States," SocArXiv x9f5y, Center for Open Science.
    20. Kim, Jinyoung & Miech, Richard, 2009. "The Black-White difference in age trajectories of functional health over the life course," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 717-725, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Old-age mortality; Black-white mortality crossover; Hispanic paradox;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0623-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.