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Sexual Mixing in Shanghai: Are Heterosexual Contact Patterns Compatible With an HIV/AIDS Epidemic?

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  • M. Merli
  • James Moody
  • Joshua Mendelsohn
  • Robin Gauthier

Abstract

China’s HIV prevalence is low, mainly concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs), their clients, men who have sex with men, and the stable partners of members of these high-risk groups. We evaluate the contribution to the spread of HIV of China’s regime of heterosexual relations, of the structure of heterosexual networks, and of the attributes of key population groups with simulations driven by data from a cross-sectional survey of egocentric sexual networks of the general population of Shanghai and from a concurrent respondent-driven sample of FSWs. We find that the heterosexual network generated by our empirically calibrated simulations has low levels of partner change, strong constraints on partner selection by age and education, and a very small connected core, mainly comprising FSWs and their clients and characterized by a fragile transmission structure. This network has a small HIV epidemic potential but is compatible with the transmission of bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as syphilis, which are less susceptible to structural breaks in transmission of infection. Our results suggest that policies that force commercial sex underground could have an adverse effect on the spread of HIV and other STIs. Copyright Population Association of America 2015

Suggested Citation

  • M. Merli & James Moody & Joshua Mendelsohn & Robin Gauthier, 2015. "Sexual Mixing in Shanghai: Are Heterosexual Contact Patterns Compatible With an HIV/AIDS Epidemic?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(3), pages 919-942, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:52:y:2015:i:3:p:919-942
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0383-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William L. Parish & Edward O. Laumann & Sanyu A. Mojola, 2007. "Sexual Behavior in China: Trends and Comparisons," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(4), pages 729-756, December.
    2. Merli, M. Giovanna & Moody, James & Smith, Jeffrey & Li, Jing & Weir, Sharon & Chen, Xiangsheng, 2015. "Challenges to recruiting population representative samples of female sex workers in China using Respondent Driven Sampling," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 79-93.
    3. Lin Lu & Manhong Jia & Yanling Ma & Li Yang & Zhiwei Chen & David D. Ho & Yan Jiang & Linqi Zhang, 2008. "The changing face of HIV in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 455(7213), pages 609-611, October.
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    5. Thespina J. Yamanis & M. Giovanna Merli & William Whipple Neely & Felicia Feng Tian & James Moody & Xiaowen Tu & Ersheng Gao, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Recruitment Patterns on RDS Estimates among a Socially Ordered Population of Female Sex Workers in China," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 42(3), pages 392-425, August.
    6. Steven Goodreau & James Kitts & Martina Morris, 2009. "Birds of a feather, or friend of a friend? using exponential random graph models to investigate adolescent social networks," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(1), pages 103-125, February.
    7. Morris, M. & Kurth, A.E. & Hamilton, D.T. & Moody, J. & Wakefield, S., 2009. "Concurrent partnerships and HIV prevalence disparities by race: Linking science and public health practice," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(6), pages 1023-1031.
    8. Hongyun Han, 2010. "Trends in educational assortative marriage in China from 1970 to 2000," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(24), pages 733-770.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ashton M. Verdery, 2015. "Links Between Demographic and Kinship Transitions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(3), pages 465-484, September.

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