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Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections

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  • Nan Li

    ()

  • Ronald Lee
  • Patrick Gerland

Abstract

In developed countries, mortality decline is decelerating at younger ages and accelerating at old ages, a phenomenon we call “rotation.” We expect that this rotation will also occur in developing countries as they attain high life expectancies. But the rotation is subtle and has proved difficult to handle in mortality models that include all age groups. Without taking it into account, however, long-term mortality projections will produce questionable results. We simplify the problem by focusing on the relative magnitude of death rates at two ages (0 and 15–19) while making assumptions about changes in rates of decline at other ages. We extend the Lee-Carter method to incorporate this subtle rotation in projection. We suggest that the extended Lee-Carter method could provide plausible projections of the age pattern of mortality for populations, including those that currently have very high life expectancies. Detailed examples are given using data from Japan and the United States. Copyright Population Association of America 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s13524-013-0232-2
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Demography.

Volume (Year): 50 (2013)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 2037-2051

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Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:50:y:2013:i:6:p:2037-2051

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Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/13524

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Related research

Keywords: Mortality age pattern; Long-term projection; Extended Lee-Carter method; Mortality forecasting; Extrapolation;

References

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  1. Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
  2. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
  3. Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214, July.
  4. John Bongaarts, 2005. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Demography, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 23-49, February.
  5. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
  6. Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
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