Modeling and Forecasting Health Expectancy: Theoretical Framework and Application
AbstractLife expectancy continues to grow in most Western countries; however, a major remaining question is whether longer life expectancy will be associated with more or fewer life years spent with poor health. Therefore, complementing forecasts of life expectancy with forecasts of health expectancies is useful. To forecast health expectancy, an extension of the stochastic extrapolative models developed for forecasting total life expectancy could be applied, but instead of projecting total mortality and using regular life tables, one could project transition probabilities between health states simultaneously and use multistate life table methods. In this article, we present a theoretical framework for a multistate life table model in which the transition probabilities depend on age and calendar time. The goal of our study is to describe a model that projects transition probabilities by the Lee-Carter method, and to illustrate how it can be used to forecast future health expectancy with prediction intervals around the estimates. We applied the method to data on the Dutch population aged 55 and older, and projected transition probabilities until 2030 to obtain forecasts of life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and probability of compression of disability. Copyright Population Association of America 2013
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Demography.
Volume (Year): 50 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/13524
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kevin Dowd & David Blake & Andrew Cairns, 2010. "Facing up to uncertain life expectancy: The longevity fan charts," Demography, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 67-78, February.
- Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718.
- Wolfgang Lurz & Anne Goujon, 2001. "The World's Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi-State Population Projections by Educational Attainment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 323-339.
- De Waegenaere, A.M.B. & Melenberg, B. & Stevens, R., 2010.
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-4578387, Tilburg University.
- Eileen Crimmins & Mark Hayward & Aaron Hagedorn & Yasuhiko Saito & Nicolas Brouard, 2009. "Change in disability-free life expectancy for Americans 70 years old and older," Demography, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 627-646, August.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005.
"Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
- Manton, Kenneth G. & Stallard, Eric & Singer, Burt, 1992. "Projecting the future size and health status of the US elderly population," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 433-458, November.
- Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
- Richard MacMinn & Patrick Brockett & David Blake, 2006. "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 551-557.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.