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Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS)

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaolin Ren

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Matthias Weitzel

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Brian C. O’Neill

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Peter Lawrence

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Prasanth Meiyappan

    (University of Illinois)

  • Samuel Levis

    (The Climate Corporation)

  • Edward J. Balistreri

    (Colorado School of Mines)

  • Michael Dalton

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))

Abstract

Crop yields are vulnerable to climate change. We assess the global impacts of climate change on agricultural systems under two climate projections (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) to quantify the difference in impacts if climate change were reduced. We also employ two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) to assess the sensitivity of results to the underlying socioeconomic conditions. The integrated-Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, a global integrated assessment model for projecting future energy use, land use and emissions, is used in conjunction with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and particularly its land surface component, the Community Land Model (CLM), to evaluate climate change impacts on agriculture. iPETS results are produced at the level of nine world regions for the period 2005–2100. We employ climate impacts on crop yield derived from CLM, driven by CESM simulations of the two RCPs. These yield effects are applied within iPETS, imposed on baseline and mitigation scenarios for SSP3 and SSP5 that are consistent with the RCPs. We find that the reduced level of warming in RCP4.5 (relative to RCP8.5) can have either positive or negative effects on the economy since crop yield either increases or decreases with climate change depending on assumptions about CO2 fertilization. Yields are up to 12 % lower, and crop prices are up to 15 % higher, in RCP4.5 relative to RCP8.5 if CO2 fertilization is included, whereas yields are up to 22 % higher, and crop prices up to 22 % lower, if it is not. We also find that in the mitigation scenarios (RCP4.5), crop prices are substantially affected by mitigation actions as well as by climate impacts. For the scenarios we evaluated, the development pathway (SSP3 vs SSP5) has a larger impact on outcomes than climate (RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5), by a factor of 3 for crop prices, 11 for total cropland use, and 35 for GDP on global average.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaolin Ren & Matthias Weitzel & Brian C. O’Neill & Peter Lawrence & Prasanth Meiyappan & Samuel Levis & Edward J. Balistreri & Michael Dalton, 2018. "Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 517-531, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1791-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1791-1
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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
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    3. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    4. Meiyappan, Prasanth & Dalton, Michael & O’Neill, Brian C. & Jain, Atul K., 2014. "Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 152-174.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    2. Shinichiro Fujimori & Toshichika Iizumi & Tomoko Hasegawa & Jun’ya Takakura & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Yasuaki Hijioka, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-14, October.
    3. N. B. Melnikov & A. P. Gruzdev & M. G. Dalton & M. Weitzel & B. C. O’Neill, 2021. "Parallel Extended Path Method for Solving Perfect Foresight Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 517-534, August.
    4. Matthias Weitzel & Edward J. Balistreri & Brian C. O'Neill & Xiaolin Ren, 2019. "A GAMS/MPSGE implementation of the PET model," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 19-wp593, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Brian C. O’Neill & James Done & Andrew Gettelman & Peter Lawrence & Flavio Lehner & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Lei Lin & Andrew Monaghan & Keith Oleson & Xiaolin Ren & Benjamin Sanderson & Claudia Tebal, 2018. "The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): a synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 287-301, February.
    6. Anton Orlov & Anne Sophie Daloz & Jana Sillmann & Wim Thiery & Clara Douzal & Quentin Lejeune & Carl Schleussner, 2021. "Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 367-390, October.
    7. Ying Xu & Lei Yao, 2021. "Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation into Land Use Optimization: A Case Study in Huailai County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-19, November.
    8. Nayab Khalid & Ayesha Siddiqa & Sheraz Ahmad Ch & Khalid Zaman, 2018. "Impact of Agriculture Sector Development on Economic Growth: Application of Robust Linear Least Squares Regression on Pakistan’s Data Set," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 14(4), pages 631-641, AUGUST.
    9. N. M. Svetlov & S. O. Siptits & I. A. Romanenko & N. E. Evdokimova, 2019. "The Effect of Climate Change on the Location of Branches of Agriculture in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 406-418, July.
    10. Mfaniseni Wiseman Mbatha & Mfundo Mandla Masuku, 2018. "Small-Scale Agriculture as a Panacea in Enhancing South African Rural Economies," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 33-41.
    11. Salvi Asefi-Najafabady & Karen L Vandecar & Anton Seimon & Peter Lawrence & Deborah Lawrence, 2018. "Climate change, population, and poverty: vulnerability and exposure to heat stress in countries bordering the Great Lakes of Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 561-573, June.

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