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Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections

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  • Marco Turco
  • Antonella Sanna
  • Sixto Herrera
  • Maria-Carmen Llasat
  • José Gutiérrez

Abstract

In this paper we analyze some caveats found in the state-of-the-art ENSEMBLES regional projections dataset focusing on precipitation over Spain, and highlight the need of a task-oriented validation of the GCM-driven control runs. In particular, we compare the performance of the GCM-driven control runs (20C3M scenario) with the ERA40-driven ones (“perfect” boundary conditions) in a common period (1961–2000). Large deviations between the results indicate a large uncertainty/bias for the particular RCM-GCM combinations and, hence, a small confidence for the corresponding transient simulations due to the potential nonlinear amplification of biases. Specifically, we found large biases for some RCM-GCM combinations attributable to RCM in-house problems with the particular GCM coupling. These biases are shown to distort the corresponding climate change signal, or “delta”, in the last decades of the 21st century, considering the A1B scenario. Moreover, we analyze how to best combine the available RCMs to obtain more reliable projections. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Turco & Antonella Sanna & Sixto Herrera & Maria-Carmen Llasat & José Gutiérrez, 2013. "Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 859-869, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:4:p:859-869
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0844-y
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    1. Fredrik Boberg & Jens H. Christensen, 2012. "Overestimation of Mediterranean summer temperature projections due to model deficiencies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 433-436, June.
    2. Neha Mittal & Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh, 2013. "Combining climatological and participatory approaches for assessing changes in extreme climatic indices at regional scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 603-615, August.
    3. Benjamin Quesada & Robert Vautard & Pascal Yiou & Martin Hirschi & Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2012. "Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 736-741, October.
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    1. A. Casanueva & J. Bedia & S. Herrera & J. Fernández & J. M. Gutiérrez, 2018. "Direct and component-wise bias correction of multi-variate climate indices: the percentile adjustment function diagnostic tool," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 411-425, April.

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