How do people update? The effects of local weather fluctuations on beliefs about global warming
AbstractGlobal warming has become a controversial public policy issue in spite of broad scientific consensus that it is real and that human activity is a contributing factor. It is likely that public consensus is also needed to support policies that might counteract it. It is therefore important to understand how people form and update their beliefs about climate change. Using unique survey data on beliefs about the occurrence of the effects of global warming, I estimate how local temperature fluctuations influence what individuals believe about these effects. I find that some features of the updating process are consistent with rational updating. I also test explicitly for the presence of several heuristics known to affect belief formation and find strong evidence for representativeness, some evidence for availability, and no evidence for spreading activation. I find that very short-run temperature fluctuations (1 day–2 weeks) have no effect on beliefs about the occurrence of global warming, but that longer-run fluctuations (1 month–1 year) are significant predictors of beliefs. Only respondents with a conservative political ideology are affected by temperature abnormalities. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.
Volume (Year): 118 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ravi Dhar & Ning Zhu, 2006. "Up Close and Personal: Investor Sophistication and the Disposition Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 726-740, May.
- Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007.
"Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US,"
NBER Working Papers
13178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Desch�nes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-85, October.
- Olivier DeschÃªnes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," Working Papers, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research 0707, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- John A. List, 2003.
"Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press,
MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 41-71, February.
- John List, 2003. "Does market experience eliminate market anomalies?," Natural Field Experiments 00297, The Field Experiments Website.
- Grether, David M., .
"Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic,"
Working Papers, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
245, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Grether, David M, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-57, November.
- Charness, Gary B & Karni, Edi, 2007.
"Individual and Group Decision Making Under Risk: An Experimental Study of Bayesian Updating and Violations of First-order Stochastic Dominance,"
University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series
qt4gr7j8z8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin, 2007. "Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 129-148, October.
- Nicolosi, Gina & Peng, Liang & Zhu, Ning, 2009.
"Do individual investors learn from their trading experience?,"
Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-336, May.
- Gina Nicolosi & Liang Peng, 2004. "Do individual investors learn from their trading experience," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 532, Econometric Society.
- Gina Nicolosi & Liang Peng & Ning Zhu, 2003. "Do Individual Investors Learn from Their Trading Experience?," Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management ysm439, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
- Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "A Memory-Based Model Of Bounded Rationality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 735-774, August.
- Alevy, Jonathan E. & Haigh, Michael S. & List, John A., 2003.
"Information Cascades: Evidence From A Field Experiment With Financial Market Professionals,"
28608, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John A. List, 2007. "Information Cascades: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 151-180, 02.
- Jonathan Alevy & Michael Haigh & John List, 2005. "Information cascades: Evidence from a field experiment with financial market professionals," Framed Field Experiments 00116, The Field Experiments Website.
- Holt, Charles A. & Smith, Angela M., 2009. "An update on Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 125-134, February.
- Trudy Cameron, 2005.
"Updating Subjective Risks in the Presence of Conflicting Information: An Application to Climate Change,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 63-97, January.
- Trudy Ann Cameron, 2001. "Updating Subjective Risks in the Presence of Conflicting Information: An Application to Climate Change," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 2003-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 14 Jul 2001.
- Sendhil Mullainathan & Marianne Bertrand, 2001. "Do People Mean What They Say? Implications for Subjective Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 67-72, May.
- Terrell, Dek, 1994. "A Test of the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Pari-mutuel Games," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 309-17, May.
- Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.
- Lawrence Hamilton, 2011. "Education, politics and opinions about climate change evidence for interaction effects," Climatic Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 231-242, January.
- Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Belief updating among college students: evidence from experimental variation in information," Staff Reports 516, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ginger Turner & Farah Said & Uzma Afzal, 2014. "Microinsurance Demand After a Rare Flood Event: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Pakistan," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 201-223, April.
- Herrnstadt, Evan & Muehlegger, Erich, 2013. "Weather, Salience of Climate Change and Congressional Voting," Working Paper Series rwp13-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.