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Developments in modelling of climate change-related migration

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  • Robert McLeman

Abstract

Climatic variability and change is known to influence human migration patterns. Researchers increasingly see migration as one of a range of potential means by which populations may adapt to the future impacts of climate change. Modelling of climate change-related migration is a relatively new undertaking. This article provides a brief overview of current scholarly understanding of climate change-related migration processes, identifies recent developments and current challenges in modelling, and suggests opportunities for enhancing future modelling efforts. Given the lack of reliable global datasets on environmentally related migration, regional and sub-regional modelling of climate change effects on migration is where most developments are likely to emerge in the short-run. Such models, which can draw on a range of GIS-based and statistical approaches, at present make use of fairly general assumptions about migration behavior, and therefore best serve as gauges of potential trends and migration hotspots, and not as absolute predictors of future migrant numbers. Models will become increasingly sophisticated as scholarly understanding of underlying factors influencing migration behavior, such as risk perception, social networks, and labor market connections, is improved. Obtaining reliable data for use in such models will remain a significant challenge in coming years. International policymakers seeking to expand the predictive capacity of models are encouraged to use existing mechanisms such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to develop protocols and mechanisms for collecting and sharing reliable data on climate-related population movements. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Robert McLeman, 2013. "Developments in modelling of climate change-related migration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 599-611, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:117:y:2013:i:3:p:599-611
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0578-2
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    1. Robalino, Juan & Jimenez, José & Chacón, Adriana, 2015. "The Effect of Hydro-Meteorological Emergencies on Internal Migration," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 438-448.
    2. Emily C. Nabong & Aaron Opdyke & Jeffrey P. Walters, 2022. "Identifying leverage points in climate change migration systems through expert mental models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Trond G. Husby & Elco E. Koks, 2017. "Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 287-305, May.
    4. Caleb Robinson & Bistra Dilkina & Juan Moreno-Cruz, 2020. "Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Calogero Carletto & Jennica Larrison & Çaglar Özden, 2014. "Informing migration policies: a data primer," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 2, pages 9-41, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Heman D. Lohano, "undated". "Weather Variability, Agricultural Revenues and Internal Migration: Evidence from Pakistan," Working papers 99, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    7. Sun Yi & Xu Chengjin & Zhang Hailing & Liu Changxin & Ding Guanqun & Wang Zheng, 2019. "Migration impact on China’s population dividing line driven by hybrid features: perspectives of climate change and wage gap," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 431-464, June.
    8. Kelsea B. Best & Jonathan M. Gilligan & Hiba Baroud & Amanda R. Carrico & Katharine M. Donato & Brooke A. Ackerly & Bishawjit Mallick, 2021. "Random forest analysis of two household surveys can identify important predictors of migration in Bangladesh," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 77-100, May.
    9. E. V. Petracou & A. Xepapadeas & A. N. Yannacopoulos, 2017. "Climate Change and Environmentally Induced Migration Across Regions: Cooperative and Non-cooperative Solutions," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 137-164, November.
    10. Merve Suzan ILIK BİLBEN, 2018. "Antropojenik İklim Değişikliği Bağlamında Göç Tartışmaları," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(75), pages 237-268, December.
    11. Fabien Prieur & Ingmar Schumacher, 2022. "The impact of conflicts on climate and migration policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(4), pages 653-681, August.
    12. Prieur, Fabien & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2016. "The role of conflict for optimal climate and immigration policy," TSE Working Papers 16-663, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Rebecca Parrish & Tim Colbourn & Paolo Lauriola & Giovanni Leonardi & Shakoor Hajat & Ariana Zeka, 2020. "A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-20, August.
    15. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    16. Linjun Lu & Qing-Chang Lu & ABM Sertajur Rahman, 2015. "Residence and Job Location Change Choice Behavior under Flooding and Cyclone Impacts in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.
    17. Delazeri, Linda Márcia Mendes & Cunha, Dênis Antônio da & Couto-Santos, Fabiana Rita, 2018. "Climate change and urbanization: evidence from the Semi-Arid region of Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), vol. 12(2), pages 129-154.

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