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Wie gut können wir die Folgen des demographischen Wandels abschätzen? Was ist sicher? Wozu brauchen wir bessere Daten?

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  • Axel Börsch-Supan

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    Abstract

    Demographic change in Germany, as one of the megatrends of the 21st century, is a well-known fact which will, without a doubt, profoundly change the country’s social and economic situation and challenge our whole economic system. Spurred by statements by press and political representatives, demographic change is widely regarded as a menace and mere cost factor across the population. But this point of view disregards that the fact that people are becoming increasingly older can serve as a solution to many of the looming problems as well. A properly functioning health care system can lead to longer working lives which can in turn ensure a sustainable funding of the welfare system. The counter-argument of lacking health of the elderly does not seem to conform to the empirical evidence. A consequent implementation of needed reforms can make up for the negative impacts of demographic change and render it a chance rather than a menace. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11943-012-0120-z
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 (December)
    Pages: 65-82

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:6:y:2012:i:1:p:65-82

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/content/120614/

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    Related research

    Keywords: Demographischer Wandel; Gesundheitswesen; Sozialsysteme; Prognosemodell; E27; H55; J11; Demographic change; Health care system; Welfare system; Forecasting model;

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    1. Oliver Lipps & Frank Betz, 2003. "Stochastische Bevölkerungsprognose für West- und Ostdeutschland," MEA discussion paper series 03041, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Axel Börsch-Supan & Barbara Berkel, 2004. "Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions," MEA discussion paper series 04062, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    3. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan, 2004. "Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 393-, September.
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