Estimating and Forecasting Production and Orders in Manufacturing Industry from Business Survey Data: Evidence from Switzerland, 1990-2003
AbstractA fundamental issue for policy-oriented business cycle research is access to leading - or at least coincident - and reliable indicators of economic activity in manufacturing industry. Therefore, we analyse how the quickly disposable, qualitative information of the business tendency survey conducted by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) is related to the official production and order statistics of Switzerland. Pairs of high cross-correlations were selected for further analyses (Granger causality, pattern of turning points). In the next step, the remaining variables are used as predictors of the official statistics in a bivariate and multivariate approach. The results show a very high and stable relationship between the two data-sets particularly for nowcasts and - though to a somewhat lesser degree - for short term prognostics.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 139 (2003)
Issue (Month): IV (December)
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Fax: +41 (0)44 631 39 01
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More information through EDIRC
Coincident and leading indicators; forecasting; manufacturing industry;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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