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Estimating and Forecasting Production and Orders in Manufacturing Industry from Business Survey Data: Evidence from Switzerland, 1990-2003

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Author Info
Richard Etter
Michael Graff

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Abstract

A fundamental issue for policy-oriented business cycle research is access to leading - or at least coincident - and reliable indicators of economic activity in manufacturing industry. Therefore, we analyse how the quickly disposable, qualitative information of the business tendency survey conducted by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) is related to the official production and order statistics of Switzerland. Pairs of high cross-correlations were selected for further analyses (Granger causality, pattern of turning points). In the next step, the remaining variables are used as predictors of the official statistics in a bivariate and multivariate approach. The results show a very high and stable relationship between the two data-sets particularly for nowcasts and - though to a somewhat lesser degree - for short term prognostics.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 139 (2003)
Issue (Month): IV (December)
Pages: 507-533
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Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2003-iv-3

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Keywords: Coincident and leading indicators; forecasting; manufacturing industry;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
  2. Ulrich Fritsche, 1999. "Vorlaufeigenschaften von Ifo-Indikatoren für Westdeutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 179, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bergstrom, Reinhold, 1995. "The relationship between manufacturing production and different business survey series in Sweden 1968-;1992," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-393, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Richard Etter & Sibylle Gübeli & Franz-Josef Klein, 2004. "Mitlaufende und vorlaufende Indikatoren des Bruttoinlandprodukts der EU insgesamt* : Analyse mit vollständigen Daten, welche einmalig vom DG ECFIN zur Verfügung gestellt wurden," KOF Working papers 04-92, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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