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Estimating and Forecasting Production and Orders in Manufacturing Industry from Business Survey Data: Evidence from Switzerland, 1990-2003

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Author Info

  • Richard Etter
  • Michael Graff

Abstract

A fundamental issue for policy-oriented business cycle research is access to leading - or at least coincident - and reliable indicators of economic activity in manufacturing industry. Therefore, we analyse how the quickly disposable, qualitative information of the business tendency survey conducted by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) is related to the official production and order statistics of Switzerland. Pairs of high cross-correlations were selected for further analyses (Granger causality, pattern of turning points). In the next step, the remaining variables are used as predictors of the official statistics in a bivariate and multivariate approach. The results show a very high and stable relationship between the two data-sets particularly for nowcasts and - though to a somewhat lesser degree - for short term prognostics.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 139 (2003)
Issue (Month): IV (December)
Pages: 507-533

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Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2003-iv-3

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Related research

Keywords: Coincident and leading indicators; forecasting; manufacturing industry;

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References

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  1. Bergstrom, Reinhold, 1995. "The relationship between manufacturing production and different business survey series in Sweden 1968-;1992," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-393, September.
  2. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
  3. Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
  4. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
  5. Ulrich Fritsche, 1999. "Vorlaufeigenschaften von Ifo-Indikatoren für Westdeutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 179, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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Cited by:
  1. Richard Etter & Sibylle Gübeli & Franz-Josef Klein, 2004. "Mitlaufende und vorlaufende Indikatoren des Bruttoinlandprodukts der EU insgesamt* : Analyse mit vollständigen Daten, welche einmalig vom DG ECFIN zur Verfügung gestellt wurden," KOF Working papers 04-92, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing Predictive Content of the KOF Barometer in Real Time," KOF Working papers 10-249, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. de Bondt, Gabe & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2013. "Introducing the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders," Occasional Paper Series 149, European Central Bank.

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