Risk and Macroeconomic Activity
AbstractThis article explores the macroeconomic role that risk plays using the BAA-AAA spread as the measure of risk. First, it shows that meaningful upward movements in this spread are associated with recessions and their severity. Second, it includes the BAA-AAA spread in a structural vector-autoregression (VAR) to identify a shock-to-risk and finds that it causes a statistically significant and economically important decrease in output as well as increased holdings of real-money balances. Third, it uses historical decompositions to show that the shock-to-risk explains an important part of the declines in output during four post-1970 recessions. Notably, the shock-to-risk explains almost none of the decline in output during 2001 prior to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks but does clarify why the recovery was relatively weak afterwards, and it explains the bulk of the decline in output during 2008 and 2009.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 78 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
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- John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2008.
"A Black Swan in the Money Market,"
NBER Working Papers
13943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2009. "A black swan in the money market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
- John C. Williams & John B. Taylor, 2009. "A Black Swan in the Money Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 58-83, January.
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