Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication
AbstractWe explain Canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to explain and predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find that communications, especially speeches and testimony by Canadian Governing Council members, provide a significant and robust explanation of Canadian target rate decisions. However, prior to the introduction of fixed announcement dates, Canadian communications contained more information on upcoming policy moves. Finally, communications by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank—which are much more frequent—outperform our Canadian communication indicators in explaining Canadian interest rate decisions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 78 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Other versions of this item:
- Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "Canadian Interest Rate Setting: The Information Content of Canadian and U.S. Central Bank Communication," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200935, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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- Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2010.
"Bank of Canada Communication, Media Coverage, and Financial Market Reactions,"
MAGKS Papers on Economics
201020, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Bank of Canada communication, media coverage, and financial market reactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 369-372.
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