Average Tax Rate Cyclicality in OECD Countries: A Test of Three Fiscal Policy Theories
AbstractThis article investigates the cyclical properties of the average effective tax rate in 26 OECD countries over 1965–2003 to test the validity of three theories of fiscal policy: (i) the standard Keynesian theory, which recommends that tax policy should be countercyclical; (ii) the Tax Smoothing hypothesis, which implies that changes in GDP should be uncorrelated with tax rates; and (iii) the positive theory of Battaglini and Coate (2008), which predicts the average tax rate should be negatively correlated with GDP. Our main finding is that the correlations of tax rates with cyclical GDP are generally quite small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. This finding is quite robust and is more consistent with the implications of the Tax Smoothing hypothesis than either the recommendations of the standard Keynesian model or predictions of the political economy theory of Battaglini and Coate.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 77 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Other versions of this item:
- Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2010. "Average tax rate cyclicality in OECD countries: A test of three fiscal policy theories," MPRA Paper 22208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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