The Elasticity of Taxable Income during the 1990s: New Estimates and Sensitivity Analyses
AbstractOver the past two decades, the elasticity of taxable income has emerged as the central parameter for assessing efficiency and revenue implications from changes to tax policy. This article estimates short- and longer-run responses of taxable (and gross) income to changes in tax rates using panels of U.S. tax returns for the 1990s. With the richest set of income controls, income-weighted elasticity estimates range from 0.19 to 0.33, depending on whether responses are measured over one- or three-year intervals. An alternative approach designed to capture delayed and anticipatory responses yields much larger estimates—ranging from 0.43 over the short term and from 0.78 to 1.46 over the longer term. A continuing obstacle to identification encountered here is that the income controls most likely to control for mean reversion and divergence within the income distribution are also the most likely to absorb independent variation in tax rates, also needed for identification.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 77 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
- H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
- J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
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- Massarrat-Mashhadi, Nima & Werdt, Clive, 2012. "Estimating dynamic income responses to tax changes Massarrat-Mashhadi: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 2012/22, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Carey, Simon & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman & Teng, Josh, 2012.
"Regression Estimates of the Elasticity of Taxable Income and the Choice of Instrument,"
Working Paper Series
2429, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
- Simon Carey & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell & Josh Teng, 2013. "Regression Estimates of the Elasticity of Taxable Income and the Choice of Instrument," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/08, New Zealand Treasury.
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