A Meta-Analysis of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship
AbstractIn this article we use meta-analysis to investigate the investment-uncertainty relationship. We focus on the direction and statistical significance of empirical estimates. Specifically, we estimate an ordered probit model and transform the estimated coefficients into marginal effects to reflect the changes in the probability of finding a significantly negative estimate, an insignificant estimate, or a significantly positive estimate. Exploratory data analysis shows that there is little empirical evidence for a positive relationship. The regression results suggest that the source of uncertainty, the level of data aggregation, the underlying model specification, and differences between short- and long-run effects are important sources of variation in study outcomes. These findings are, by and large, robust to the introduction of a trend variable to capture publication trends in the literature. The probability of finding a significantly negative relationship is higher in more recently published studies.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
- D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
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- Joachim Wagner, 2010.
"From estimation results to stylized facts. Twelve recommendations for empirical research in international activities of heterogeneous firms,"
Working Paper Series in Economics
186, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
- Joachim Wagner, 2011. "From Estimation Results to Stylized Facts Twelve Recommendations for Empirical Research in International Activities of Heterogeneous Firms," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 389-412, December.
- Wagner, Joachim, 2010. "From Estimation Results to Stylized Facts: Twelve Recommendations for Empirical Research in International Activities of Heterogeneous Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 5175, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Mark Koetse & Raymond Florax & Henri Groot, 2010. "Consequences of effect size heterogeneity for meta-analysis: a Monte Carlo study," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 217-236, June.
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