Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy
AbstractUnivariate filters used in output gap estimation are subject to criticism as being purely statistical and having no economic content. The information content of the output gap measures estimated by standard multivariate filtering techniques, on the other hand, can be distorted because of the possibly unrealistic restriction that system parameters stay constant over time. In this study, we seek to address these shortcomings by proposing an output gap estimation method that takes into account changing economic relations. We employ a nonlinear time series framework along with the extended Kalman filter, in which economic content is used by inflation and output gap dynamics and the parameters are allowed to be time varying. We use the Turkish economy as a laboratory to show that our method provides useful results, both in terms of the properties of output gap estimates and for the assessment of change in macroeconomic dynamics.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 74 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Eda Gulsen & Musa Orak, 2010. "2008 Hedef Revizyonu Oncesi ve Sonrasinda Enflasyon Beklentileri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1001, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Fatih Ozatay, 2013. "Likely Candidates: Next BRICs? Turkey," Working Papers 1305, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2013.
- Fatih Ozatay, 2008.
"Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey,"
406, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2008.
- Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
- Nicolas E. Magud & Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bankâ€™s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 12/243, International Monetary Fund.
- Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2012. "Alternatif Cikti Acigi Gostergeleri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1222, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
- Murat Ungor, 2012. "A Production Function Method of Estimating the Output Gap," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1219, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 11/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Fatih Ozatay, 2013. "Turkey's Distressing Dance with Capital Flows," Working Papers 1306, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2013.
- Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Tugrul Gurgur & Fethi Ogunc, 2008. "Islenmis Gida Fiyatlarini Belirleyen Faktorler," Working Papers 0809, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Razzolini).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.