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The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Emerging Market Economies

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  • John Thornton

    ()
    (Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

A standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (q,v) model is employed to construct a measure of monthly inflation uncertainty in 12 emerging market economies, and the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is examined using Granger-causality tests. The results suggest that higher inflation rates increased inflation uncertainty in all the economies, providing strong support for the Friedman hypothesis. The evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on average monthly inflation is more mixed, with increased inflation uncertainty leading to lower average inflation in Colombia, Israel, Mexico, and Turkey, consistent with the Holland hypothesis, but to higher average inflation in Hungary, Indonesia, and Korea, consistent with the hypothesis of Cukierman and Meltzer.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 73 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 858–870

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:73:4:y:2007:p:858-870

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Web page: http://www.southerneconomic.org/
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Cited by:
  1. Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2012. "The Relationship between Inflation, output growth, and their Uncertainties: Evidence from selected CEE countries," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20128, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
  2. dogru, bulent, 2013. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from Turkey, 1923–2012," MPRA Paper 51232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2013. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty And Output Growth: Recent Evidence From Asean-5 Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(04), pages 1350030-1-1.
  4. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2009. "Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist? Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability," Working Papers 0921, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics, revised Dec 2009.
  5. Jiranyakul, Komain & Opiela, Timothy P., 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 105-112, April.
  6. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Stilianos Fountas, 2010. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and growth: are they related ?," Discussion Paper Series 2010_12, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2010.
  8. Achour Maha & Trabelsi Abdelwahed, 2011. "Markov Switching and State-Space Approaches for Investigating the Link between Egyptian Inflation Level and Uncertainty," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 46-62, February.

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