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An SVAR Model of Fluctuations in U.S. Migration Flows and State Labor Market Dynamics

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Author Info

  • Mark D. Partridge

    ()
    (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Saskatchewan)

  • Dan S. Rickman

    ()
    (College of Business, Oklahoma State University)

Abstract

Large internal migration flows are typically viewed as evidence of flexible U.S. labor markets adjusting to asymmetrical regional demand shocks. Yet, amenity-induced migration flows suggest that they may not necessarily facilitate adjustment to demand shocks and instead may be destabilizing. This paper employs a structural vector autoregression model with long-run identifying restrictions to account for both labor-demand and labor-supply shocks in examining the role of migration in U.S. regional labor-market fluctuations. The results reveal that less than one-half of innovations in state migration flows are responses to labor-demand shocks. It is not until the third period that migrants fill a majority of demand-induced jobs in a typical state, while it takes about 7 to 8 years for migration flows to fully adjust to labor-demand shocks. The extent of the migration response also has implications for how much state and local economic development policies benefit original residents.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 72 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 958–980

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:72:4:y:2006:p:958-980

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Cited by:
  1. Juessen, Falko & Linnemann, Ludger, 2012. "Identifying Regional Labor Demand Shocks Using Sign Restrictions," IZA Discussion Papers 6767, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Partridge, Mark & Betz, Mike, 2012. "Country Road Take Me Home: Migration Patterns in the Appalachia America and Place-Based Policy," MPRA Paper 38293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Cebula, Richard & Clark, Jeff, 2010. "Migration, Economic Freedom, and Personal Freedom: An Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 50957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Apr 2010.
  4. Ioannis Kaplanis & Vassilis Monastiriotis, 2012. "Flexible Employment and Cross-Regional Adjustment," SERC Discussion Papers 0100, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  5. Richard Cebula & Usha Nair-Reichert, 2012. "Migration and public policies: a further empirical analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 238-248, January.
  6. Cebula, Richard J. & Alexander, Gigi M., 2006. "Determinants of Net Interstate Migration, 2000-2004," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 36(2).
  7. Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2010. "Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 159-189, September.
  8. Mitze, Timo & Stephan, Andreas, 2013. "Simultaneous-equations Analysis in Regional Science and Economic Geography," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 309, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
  9. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Ali, Kamar, 2012. "Dwindling U.S. internal migration: Evidence of spatial equilibrium or structural shifts in local labor markets?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 375-388.
  10. Gunderson, Ronald J. & Sorenson, David J., 2010. "An Examination of Domestic Migration from California Counties," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 40(1).
  11. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Tan, Ying, 2012. "When spatial equilibrium fails: is place-based policy second best?," MPRA Paper 40270, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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