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An SVAR Model of Fluctuations in U.S. Migration Flows and State Labor Market Dynamics

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  • Mark D. Partridge

    ()
    (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Saskatchewan)

  • Dan S. Rickman

    ()
    (College of Business, Oklahoma State University)

Abstract

Large internal migration flows are typically viewed as evidence of flexible U.S. labor markets adjusting to asymmetrical regional demand shocks. Yet, amenity-induced migration flows suggest that they may not necessarily facilitate adjustment to demand shocks and instead may be destabilizing. This paper employs a structural vector autoregression model with long-run identifying restrictions to account for both labor-demand and labor-supply shocks in examining the role of migration in U.S. regional labor-market fluctuations. The results reveal that less than one-half of innovations in state migration flows are responses to labor-demand shocks. It is not until the third period that migrants fill a majority of demand-induced jobs in a typical state, while it takes about 7 to 8 years for migration flows to fully adjust to labor-demand shocks. The extent of the migration response also has implications for how much state and local economic development policies benefit original residents.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Economic Association in its journal Southern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 72 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 958–980

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Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:72:4:y:2006:p:958-980

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Cited by:
  1. Mitze, Timo & Stephan, Andreas, 2013. "Simultaneous-equations Analysis in Regional Science and Economic Geography," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies 309, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
  2. Juessen, Falko & Linnemann, Ludger, 2012. "Identifying Regional Labor Demand Shocks Using Sign Restrictions," IZA Discussion Papers 6767, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Kaplanis, Ioannis, 2011. "Flexible employment and cross- regional adjustment," Working Papers, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics 2072/179671, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  4. Richard J. Cebula & J.R. Clark, 2011. "Migration, Economic Freedom, and Personal Freedom: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 27(Fall 2011), pages 43-62.
  5. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Tan, Ying, 2012. "When spatial equilibrium fails: is place-based policy second best?," MPRA Paper 40270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Betz, Mike & Farren, Michael & Lobao, Linda & Partridge, Mark D., 2014. "Coal Mining, Economic Development, and the Natural Resource Curse," MPRA Paper 58016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2009. "Internal Migration, Regional Labour Market Dynamics and Implications for German East-West Disparities – Results from a Panel VAR," Ruhr Economic Papers, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen 0096, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  8. Partridge, Mark & Betz, Mike, 2012. "Country Road Take Me Home: Migration Patterns in the Appalachia America and Place-Based Policy," MPRA Paper 38293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Ali, Kamar, 2012. "Dwindling U.S. internal migration: Evidence of spatial equilibrium or structural shifts in local labor markets?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 375-388.
  10. Richard Cebula & Usha Nair-Reichert, 2012. "Migration and public policies: a further empirical analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 238-248, January.
  11. Gunderson, Ronald J. & Sorenson, David J., 2010. "An Examination of Domestic Migration from California Counties," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 40(1).
  12. Cebula, Richard J. & Alexander, Gigi M., 2006. "Determinants of Net Interstate Migration, 2000-2004," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 36(2).

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